“We investigated a mathematical model on timing of enhancing testing capacity of COVID-19 as a part of an MPhil research carried out by Ms. Uma Meththananda, registered in the Faculty of Graduate Studies”, said , Senior Lecturer at Department of Mathematics, 91��ý. Prof. S.S.N. Perera, Ms. K.K.W.H. Erandi, Dr. Y. Jayathunga (University of Colombo) and Dr. H.O.W. Peiris (Open University of 91��ý) also contributed to this investigation.

This modelling work was tested for early stage of COVID-19 transmission in 91��ý and it can be extended to any time frame subject the availability of data to enumerate parameters. In one numerical experiment, it was observed that frequency of enhancing testing capacity started decreasing after several increments, indicating economically favourable direction amidst effort constraints. Initially, operating intervals due to enhanced testing capacity were observed as 27, 15 and 8 days that further declined to 5 days, then it gradually started increasing upon the effort-to-demand ratio set via number of tests as a logistic measure and recovered portion as an epidemiological measure.

In this research, timing of enhancing testing capacity was modelled as an optimal problem, where the enhancement was quantified via number of tests as an instant measure and recovered portion as a long-term measure. The model was structured analogous to an optimal machine replacement model based on a nonlinear integral equation. Scenario development criteria on demand and effort for enhancing testing capacity were introduced for predictions.

Publication details: R.G.U.I. Meththananda, N.C. Ganegoda, S.S.N. Perera, K.K.W.H. Erandi, Y. Jayathunga and H.O.W. Peiris,��,��Journal of Process Control, Vol. 105, pp. 204-213, 2021

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