Blog Archives - USJ - 91传媒 /category/blog/ Tue, 13 Aug 2024 05:16:11 +0000 en-US hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=6.9.4 /wp-content/uploads/2016/06/cropped-usjp-logo-fav-150x150.jpg Blog Archives - USJ - 91传媒 /category/blog/ 32 32 81423829 Exploring the Impact of Childhood Obesity on Dengue Hospitalizations: A Crucial Insight from 91传媒 /blog/exploring-the-impact-of-childhood-obesity-on-dengue-hospitalizations-a-crucial-insight-from-sri-lanka/ Tue, 13 Aug 2024 05:16:11 +0000 /?p=67205 New Study Alert! A recent study investigates the link between childhood obesity and increased hospitalizations due to dengue in 91传媒. Among 4782 children aged 10 to 18, those with […]

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New Study Alert!

A recent study investigates the link between childhood obesity and increased hospitalizations due to dengue in 91传媒. Among 4782 children aged 10 to 18, those with higher BMI percentiles had a significantly higher risk of hospitalization. Specifically, 18.2% of seropositive children with a BMI centile >97th were hospitalized, compared to 9.48% with a BMI centile <97th. These findings suggest a strong association between obesity and severe dengue outcomes, highlighting the need for increased awareness and further research.

Read more:

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Psychological Distress and Sleep Quality among 91传媒n Medical Students during an Economic Crisis /blog/psychological-distress-and-sleep-quality-among-sri-lankan-medical-students-during-an-economic-crisis/ Mon, 05 Aug 2024 03:40:53 +0000 /?p=67138 New Study Alert! Excited to share findings from a recent study titled “Psychological Distress and Sleep Quality among 91传媒n Medical Students during an Economic Crisis.” This study reveals that […]

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New Study Alert!

Excited to share findings from a recent study titled “Psychological Distress and Sleep Quality among 91传媒n Medical Students during an Economic Crisis.” This study reveals that 69.2% of students experienced psychological distress, with 23% facing depression, anxiety, and stress. Anxiety was the most prevalent (50.7%), and 41% reported poor sleep quality. Factors like frequent contact with friends and social media use were linked to lower distress, while mindfulness activities helped reduce depression. These findings underscore the urgent need to address sleep quality and mental health in medical students.

Read more:

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Urgent! Antibiotic Resistance: Running Out of Options? (USJ Microbiology Dept. Sounds the Alarm) /blog/would-we-run-out-of-antibiotics-to-treat-infections-in-the-future-queries-the-microbiology-department-of-fms-usj/ Fri, 05 Apr 2024 11:40:33 +0000 /?p=66302 Antibiotic resistance looms as one of the most significant threats to global health in the 21st century, with projections suggesting that it could lead to a staggering 50 million deaths […]

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Antibiotic resistance looms as one of the most significant threats to global health in the 21st century, with projections suggesting that it could lead to a staggering 50 million deaths by 2050 if left unchecked. Recognizing the gravity of this impending crisis, the Department of Microbiology of Faculty of Medical Sciences at the 91传媒 has embarked on a mission to educate on antibiotic resistance and spearhead efforts to combat this growing menace.

Furthermore, the Department of Microbiology, Department of Pharmacology (FMS) and Department of Medical Laboratory Sciences (FASH) of 91传媒 is actively engaged in research aimed at understanding the antibiotic resistance among patients with and without cancer. Alarmingly the findings have shown that the presence of antibiotic resistant infections in cancer patients are significantly high.


In conclusion, the Department of Microbiology of Faculty of Medical Sciences at the 91传媒 recognizes the grave threat posed by antibiotic resistance and is committed to leading the charge against it. The Department of Microbiology aims to work tirelessly through education and research, to ensure a future where effective antibiotics remain a cornerstone of modern medicine, saving lives and preserving public health for generations听to听come.

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Talking about women on Women’s Day /blog/talking-about-women-on-womens-day/ Thu, 14 Mar 2024 04:23:16 +0000 /?p=66027 When I was asked if I would come for a Pethikada programme that airs on Sirasa TV recently, my first question was 鈥淭o speak on what subject?鈥 The last weeks […]

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When I was asked if I would come for a Pethikada programme that airs on Sirasa TV recently, my first question was 鈥淭o speak on what subject?鈥 The last weeks had been ones in which I was turning down offers that had come from a radio channel 鈥 it is easy here to be asked to speak on any subject when you are known for doing well in one 鈥 and that鈥檚 a pitfall I wish to avoid as that鈥檚 a sure shot way of making voluble people become experts overnight in things they have not studied seriously, especially in the age of powerful social media.听听 鈥淲omen鈥檚 Day鈥 was the answer to that question, and my yes was instantaneous 鈥 for not only do I read and think on the issue of feminism, but experience first hand what it means to be a woman who tries to change the status quo in something – though thanks to the general spirit at Sri Jayewardenepura University, all the changes that I had wished to put in the field of English language teaching there had听 been approved without much heartbreak: let that also stand as testament to the fact that there could be spaces in which you are heard and valued anywhere for your ideas, despite the gender, here in 91传媒 (though it would be silly if I forget what who your parents are can also play in this context).

So, the interview 鈥

Asoka started by the positive fact that now women are very clearly seen in the education field and so on, with the majority in universities being women 鈥 with clear signs of discipline and progress being shown by them unlike the old days.听 While agreeing with him, I brought out a fact that Professor Neelika Malavige had shared with me during one of my interviews with her 鈥 that though there are many women at beginning stages of institutions, not many can be seen the higher you go in power.听 Even at the basic level in education, the faculty concerned might give different pictures with regard to gender distribution – STEM subjects are not often picked by women; in the arts faculties women opt more for teaching than anything else, still, due to practical reasons maybe.

I also made the point that the freedoms that Asoka was talking about hadn鈥檛 just occurred naturally very often 鈥 there would have been women who would have had to fight for them at some point.听 For the right to vote, for example, couldn鈥檛 have happened without the suffragists taking a stand for that in the West.听 The West and the East could differ in some things too 鈥 the female order of bhikshunis was given by the Buddha himself when his stepmother asked for it; we voted in the first woman prime minister of the world, whether or not that would have happened without the tragedy that preceded it not taking away the fact that this country hadn鈥檛 minded being led by a woman.听 But in the modern world, which more or less is constructed by the centers of a ubiquitous economic framework, much of the freedoms we have now have been got by someone standing up somewhere for the rights of women.

One thing I wanted to make clear was the fact that 鈥榗hoice鈥 was always the word I would recommend with every analysis I made 鈥 if one wanted to be a housewife and not work, then that choice should not be questioned by anyone 鈥 but that choice should not have been made because she has not been made to imagine otherwise.听 We then spoke of the cultural contexts in which such choices occur.听 Advertisements and teledramas being the most common ways in which such ideologies are passed through, I spoke about some simplified stereotypes we find in them: in teledramas, for example, the 鈥済ood鈥 mother more or less always cries, any woman who laughs aloud and seems to be having fun is generally depicted as being the 鈥榖ad鈥 woman; ditto for girls in short dresses or make up.听 These are of course, class bound concepts, and I did mention the fact that the glass ceilings we speak of for girls and women, don鈥檛 even exist in particular classes.

The discussion of family and motherhood, swerved into details of my own life with the interviewer asking if I bring by daughters up according to what I believe, especially since my own mother is of a very different kind, a very traditional, almost perfect, wife without whom my father may not have been where he is today.听 听The answer was 鈥渘aturally鈥 – one鈥檚 children are naturally influenced by the mother鈥檚 beliefs, and a mother, if not a hypocrite, would want to see the ideas she speaks about in public embodied in her own children.听 But again, that is their choice, whether they follow these ideas or not.听 We cannot, I think, be free of what our mothers are 鈥 we will make our own identity according to what she is/was or in opposition to it 鈥 either way it matters. 听听Since I do not talk about my personal life in media generally, all I said when he asked if my home was different from what my parents鈥 home had been, was just 鈥榲ery鈥.听 I also pointed out that my mother was not a professor, though I do think she had the knowledge enough to be one at one point 鈥 while as in my case, my husband is a professor and I have at least got a doctorate.听 But it was also not a value judgement 鈥 one woman cannot/should not question the choices of another.

Another thing that I emphasized in this interview is that feminism is not restricted to women.听 There are men who are feminist; there are women who are not.听 If a young couple goes to cook together in the kitchen it may be the mother-in-law who first says that her son has been ruined 鈥 I am not sure if this is the case now, but it could be.听 But the fact is everyone who believes in equality should be.听 Feminism is not about us being better than the other 鈥 its about both sexes being equal.

But there is also this 鈥 if we are to be treated equally, we might have to work harder than the men sometimes.听 That is why I keep saying that women should never stop studying and work harder even to be treated equal; if we are in an educational institution, we need to educate ourselves and gather qualifications but even if we are not 鈥 it is important that we keep reading so that out minds do not go to sleep with the work we have to handle.听 Easier said than done, there are many economic reasons as to why women can鈥檛 keep educating themselves 鈥 but even without the money, even without certificates being granted at the end, if there is support from the family and time can be created, anyone can access the rather good public library system we have in 91传媒, or even the internet, and keep learning, keep being curious, keep educating ourselves. 听This is important.听 Reading gives power, it gives confidence 鈥 above all, it gives knowledge.听 听Women being more educated is to make the world more educated.

To Asoka鈥檚 point about there being more women who are confident and sure of themselves now, I said there is no question about women not knowing their power and capacity.听 We know what we are.听 But whether that confidence is left unchallenged and we are made to fell less so that others can feel more powerful is another question altogether.听 There are times when we are made to feel more and more unsure of ourselves in a patriarchal world 鈥 and that鈥檚 a tragedy.听 There are various reasons for this 鈥 it is possible that culture itself 鈥 constructed through words as well as ritual 鈥 does this.听 Look at the phrases that describe women in Sinhala sometimes 鈥 gehenunge mole handimite digay [The brain of women is the length of a spoon-handle] or taking as ideal children kata athi puthek and ruva ethi duwak [A talkative son and a pretty daughter], so that women who talk a lot, like me, can easily be called names.

People in power decide the words, here as well as elsewhere.听 If women were in power, would we say that our brains are the length of a spoon-handle?听 No.听 Globally this has been so as well 鈥 a white male may have decided what the world looks like for us already, for the world is constructed through language.听 听Words are connected to power, language is, so at a deep level we are fighting against language 鈥 thereby reality 鈥 itself.

I was glad of the chance to talk about these things that I think about, and experience, every day.听 You can see the video here if you wish. Thank you, Sirasa, and Asoka Dias for giving me this chance. I hope this helps some woman somewhere 鈥 it will be worth the while, if so.

Dr. M. M. K. Ratnayake
Senior Lecturer (Grade I)
PhD (Hitotsubashi, Tokyo, Japan);
M.A. (New York University); B.A. (Honours) (Allahabad);
Dip in TESL, (Colombo)

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USJ Medical Faculty Scientists Conduct Whole Genomic Sequencing of SARS-CoV-2 Variants in 91传媒 /news/usj-medical-faculty-scientists-conduct-whole-genomic-sequencing-of-sars-cov-2-variants-in-sri-lanka/ Tue, 23 May 2023 03:17:57 +0000 /?p=61736 The Allergy Immunology and Cell Biology Unit at the Department of Immunology and Molecular Medicine, 91传媒, has successfully conducted whole genomic sequencing of SARS-CoV-2 variants in Sri […]

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The Allergy Immunology and Cell Biology Unit at the Department of Immunology and Molecular Medicine, 91传媒, has successfully conducted whole genomic sequencing of SARS-CoV-2 variants in 91传媒. This groundbreaking research provides valuable insights into the changing landscape of the virus in the country.
The “Report 60” contains the whole genomic sequencing of the SARS-CoV-2 variants was released to the public on May 19, 2023 at Colombo, 91传媒 by Allergy Immunology and Cell Biology Unit.

The study involved sequencing 20 samples, including those referred from laboratories and samples collected for research purposes. The results revealed the presence of various SARS-CoV-2 variants, with the following distribution:

XBB.1.9.2: 3/20
XBB.1.9.1: 2/20
XBB.1.16.1: 2/20
XBB.1.16: 10/20
CH.1.1.1: 2/20
BN.1.2: 1/20

To provide a comprehensive overview, the research team has compiled several informative figures. Figure 1 depicts the timeline of the emergence and displacement of different variants in 91传媒, showcasing the changes in the SARS-CoV-2 variants over time. Figure 2 highlights the change in the relative frequency of Omicron sub-lineages, a variant of significant concern. Additionally, Figure 4 illustrates the sequencing of viruses carried out in 91传媒 thus far, while Figure 5 presents the phylogenetic tree of all SARS-CoV-2 sequences identified in the country.To promote open access to this valuable data, the findings are available for public exploration through the link:听. Researchers, policymakers, and the general public can access this resource to further their understanding of the evolving SARS-CoV-2 variants in 91传媒.

This significant achievement highlights the 91传媒’s commitment to scientific excellence and its invaluable contributions to combating the COVID-19 pandemic. The research conducted by the Allergy Immunology and Cell Biology Unit serves as a testament to the university’s dedication to advancing knowledge and promoting public health in 91传媒.

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Human Monkey Conflict: The Reasons and Mitigation Strategies /blog/human-monkey-conflict-the-reasons-and-mitigation-strategies/ Tue, 02 May 2023 14:13:33 +0000 /?p=61530 In the past couple of years from time to time the toque macaques or commonly known as rilawa, became the target for many discussions because of the reports indicating them […]

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In the past couple of years from time to time the toque macaques or commonly known as rilawa, became the target for many discussions because of the reports indicating them as a prominent species responsible for crop damage which cause considerable economic loss to the farmers in many parts of the country. Many of these reports published by various organizations on the estimation of the damage caused by macaques and the population density of macaques were not based on standard scientific methods and are not accurate. However, the relevant authorities are trying to find various solutions to control the situation based on these reports which most of the time are detrimental to the monkeys and trigger objections from the concerned parties. The macaques once again became a hotly debated topic recently and made headlines in many social media platforms because of the news alert stating that the authorities are removing the macaques and few other animal species that are reported to damage crops from the legally protected list. However, macaques were never on the legally protected list of animals under the Fauna and Flora Protection Act and hence the public were misinformed by various parties.

Very recently macaques are highlighted again in the headlines of all the social media due to the reports that the Ministry of Agriculture is considering the request made by a Chinese delegation and looking into the possibilities and legal aspects of exporting around one hundred thousand macaques to Zoological Gardens in China. This news created a media frenzy, and many people are writing for and against this.听 There are both positive and negative aspects if this materializes and both aspects should be considered thoroughly before taking any action. Removal of a large number of animals from an area at any given time could impose serious environmental issues by disrupting the ecological balance and should be done under intense supervision after a thorough scientific investigation. The macaques, with the rest of the animal species play a crucial role in preserving the biodiversity and they help to maintain the biological balance by contributing to the natural biological control of species and to help in seed dispersal. In 91传媒 there are three subspecies of macaques and each subspecies can be found only in a particular climatic zone such as in the wet zone (wet zone sub species), dry zone (dry zone sub species which has the widest distribution) and the highlands (highland subspecies). There are no accurate population estimation records of these subspecies. Therefore, it is important to estimate the correct population sizes of these subspecies and if the authorities are going ahead with the plan then should scientifically decide the number of animals to be removed from each subspecies from a certain location by making sure to keep a viable population in the environment. Further handling of such a large number of monkeys by untrained people could impose health risk due to the transmission of zoonotic and anthroponotic diseases. The relevant authorities have to consider all these factors before taking any decisions. According to these reports the estimated macaque population in the country is three million which is an over estimation of the macaque population and the authority who came up with this number should explain the reliability of this estimation.

In reality, there seems to be neither accurate population estimation of the macaques in the country nor the estimation of economic loss due to crop damage by macaques alone. According to the ground situation in each area most often more than one species of animal is responsible for damaging crops. However, when estimating the crop damage, the damage caused by the less conspicuous species, and the damage caused by the nocturnal animals (as people could not see the occurrence of the damage at night) were often overlooked and the entire loss of harvest get credited to the predominant crop damaging species present in that area. All these factors contribute to obtaining inaccurate data if not collected scientifically.

The world situation

According to the published sources toque macaque species endemic to 91传媒 cause considerable damage to crops in many places that they can be found however, this problem is not a limited only to our country. When we consider the global situation, there are more than 20 species of macaques in the world. Other than one species (Barbary macaque) found in North Africa the rest are widely distributed throughout the Asian countries from Afghanistan to Japan, the Philippines and Indonesia. Though countries like 91传媒 (toque macaque), Japan (Japanese macaque) and Taiwan (Formosan macaque) has only one species of macaque, most of other Asian countries harbor several species of macaques i.e. India (rhesus macaques, bonnet macaques, lion-tailed macaques, Assam macaques, Arunachal macaques, stump-tailed macaques, pig-tailed macaques) and Thailand (Assam macaques, pig tailed macaques, long-tailed macaques, rhesus macaques, stump-tailed macaques). What all these countries have in common is that they all are facing this human macaque conflict due to crop damage by the macaques to varying degrees and each are using various measures to mitigate the issue.

Therefore, 91传媒 too as a country should examine how the neighboring countries are tackling this problem without taking drastic measures to control the situation to get short term temporary solutions. It is important to identify long term and short-term measures to sustainably mitigate the issue and implement them simultaneously which will help farmers to reduce the crop loss due to macaques and to control the macaque population to conserve these endemic monkey species and to preserve the biodiversity in the long run. Other counties too practice the population control methods successfully using scientific methods to reduce crop damage caused by macaques to help famers and 91传媒 too should adopt these strategies to control the issue that will bring a win-win situation both for the farmers as well as for the monkeys. None of this will be possible without having accurate data on their population density and the correct estimation of the economic loss. The most crucial step in managing the issue is to map out the actual distribution of the macaques throughout the country and scientifically estimate population density and crop damage to prepare a database with the help of the relevant experts. 听Reliable data obtained through this way could be used to implement the identified control strategies to achieve successful and sustainable results. This could not be carried out by one individual or an organization and need all the relevant stakeholders (primate experts, relevant ministries, and government departments such as Ministry of Environment, Agriculture and the Department of Wildlife Conversation) and a coordinating body to govern the procedures with powers.

The science of studying monkeys is called primatology, Primatology is the study of the behavior, biology, evolution, and taxonomy of nonhuman primates. It is a diverse discipline听at the boundary between zoology and anthropology. 听听Primatologists study both living and extinct primates in their natural habitats and in laboratories by conducting field studies and experiments to understand aspects of their behavior and evolution. In 91传媒 the field primatology is not well developed however there are handful of very well-trained primate specialists actively engaged in primate studies working in the universities and other organizations. Their knowledge can be used in this situation as they are the experts with an understanding of the primates and their behaviors unfortunately their services were not yet taken by the relevant authorities.

As a specialist in primatology, who has been trained to study these monkeys and their behaviors and conducting research on them for over 20 years, I was following this information circulating on the media and noticed that some of them are not correct to my understanding. Therefore, I thought of writing this article to give a wider understanding to the readers on macaques in 91传媒 and the prevailing issue of human primate conflict.

 

Who are macaques?

The macaques belong to the group of mammals known as primates and are endemic to 91传媒. It is important to understand that we too belong to this primate group. In 91传媒, there are five species of non-human primates namely the;

  • toque macaque (Macaca sinica with three sub species – rilawa)
  • purple 鈥 faced leaf langur (Semnopithecus vetulus with four sub species- kalu wandura)
  • gray langur (Semnopithecus priam 鈥 hali wandura).
  • two Loris spp. (Loris tardigradus and Loris lydekkarianus- unahapuluwa)

 

Out of the five species of primates, macaques has the widest distribution in the country. The three subspecies of macaques are distributed in different climatic zones in the country and named accordingly as

  • the dry zone toque macaques 鈥 Macaca sinica sinica
  • the wet zone toque macaques 鈥 Macaca sinica aurifrons
  • the highland macaques 鈥 Macaca sinica opisthomelas

 

The human macaque interaction

Humans, macaques and langurs (wandura) share many physiological, anatomical and behavioral characteristics and thus have similar requirements to sustain themselves. Therefore, when they share the same environment a variety of interactions between them become inevitable.

Sometimes these interactions have negative impacts, and the intensity of the interactions increases when the similarity of these shared resources increases, creating competition which at times can be detrimental to one or both species.

Positive and Negative interactions of humans and primates

Non-human primates and humans maintain both positive and negative interactions. The positive interactions include deploying primates for economically beneficial activities such as harvesting coconuts, as can be seen in Thailand and also as performers to entertain. In both instances, humans gain economic benefit by interacting with these primates, which in turn creates a positive attitude towards them.

Most crucial for the survival of the primates and their conservation is mitigating adverse interactions that create negative attitudes toward primates, primarily in the form of human and non-human primate conflict over common resources. Human – primate conflict takes many forms ranging from destroying crops, damage to property, loss of life or injury to humans, the transmission of disease and death or injury to primates. Many studies have been conducted on different primate species around the world, looking at different aspects of human-wildlife conflict in order to find possible solutions to address the above mentioned issues.

 

Human primate conflict: the 91传媒n context

In 91传媒, the three diurnal primate species are mainly responsible for such human – primate conflict, namely the toque macaque, the purple 鈥 faced leaf langur and the gray langur. The two nocturnal Loris spp. demonstrate the least interactions with humans and no conflicts have been reported between them and humans. Further, compared to langurs, macaques are sociable animals that interact frequently with humans and prefer to stay closer to human settlements.听 The two langur species on the other hand prefer more natural habitats and foods compared to macaques (Nahallage & Huffman 2013; Dittus et al, 2019; Nahallage 2019). In general, out of the two langur species, the purple-faced leaf langurs are strictly arboreal folivores and have the least interactions with humans in many places, however this relationship does vary across different parts of the country (Rudran 1973, 2007; Dela 2007; Dittus 2012, 2019; Nahallage 2019). The gray langur鈥檚 food selection depends on the habitat they live in.听 Gray langurs that occupy natural environments depend mainly on plant material and the ones in urban cities and temple areas tend to consume food given to them by pilgrims; mostly the leftover offerings at temples (Nahallage et al. 2008; Nahallage & Huffman 2013, Dittus et al. 2019).

Human-primate conflict is not a recent occurrence in the country. Robert Knox, an English traveler who was imprisoned on the island by the Kandyan King but allowed to live in various places freely within the country for about 20 years, described how macaques invaded corn fields and home gardens despite being heavily guarded by humans (Knox 1681). There were even folk poems written regarding the crop raiding of primates (Ananda 2000). At present, crop raiding occurs in all 25 districts of the country. However, the rate of crop raiding anywhere in the world depends on such things as the species of primate present in the area, the types of crops grown, seasonality, distance to the village from the forest, availability of natural foods, and the methods of crop guarding by humans (Hill 2000, 2009; Fungo 2011). However, in 91传媒, macaques inflict more damage to the crops than both langur species. 听Except for the nocturnal loris spp., all primates were considered as pests to different degrees in all the provinces in which they are found (Nahallage et al. 2008; Prasad et al. 2016; Nahallage 2019; Cabral, et al., 2018; Dittus et al. 2019; Nahallage et al., 2022). In places where all three diurnal primates exist, toque macaques damage crops the most, followed by gray langurs (Nahallage et al. 2008; Campbel 鈥 Smith听 et al. 2010), however in some parts of the North Central province, gray langurs cause more damage than toque macaques (Perera & Vandercone 2016).

Why is it important to protect primates in 91传媒

  • They are endemic to the country.

All the primate species in the country are endemic and can be found naturally inhabiting only in our country, if they get extinct from our ecological zones they will be extinct from the world.

  • They contribute to preserve the high biodiversity.

The twelve sub species of non-human primates contribute to make 91传媒 as one of the biodiversity hotspots in the world.

  • They help to maintain the biological balance by contributing to the natural biological control of species.
  • They help in seed dispersal.

Primate species responsible for crop damage

Macaques (Rilawa) cause more damage to crops than the two langur species (Wandura).

This is mainly due to their social organization and behavioral patterns such as

  • Omnivore feeding pattern.

The omnivorous macaques consume a diverse range of food items including fruits, leaves, bark, flowers, seeds, roots, cereals, insects, other invertebrates, eggs, small mammals, birds and food prepared by humans.

  • Preference to live close to human habitats

Unlike the other two langur species macaques prefer to live close to human habitats and interact with them.

  • Adapted to live equally on ground as well as on trees.
  • Multimale 鈥 multifemale social organization pattern.

They live in large groups with several adult males, females and babies.

 

In places where all three primate species present, macaques cause more damage to crops than the langurs owing to their diverse food habits, larger group sizes, ability to adapt to any environmental conditions compared to the two langur species. The purple faced leaf langur (Kalu wandura) cause least crop damage compared to macaques and gray langurs (Hali wandura). Especially, the purple faced leaf langurs in the western province are considered as the prominent species living close to humans, causing more crop and property damage than in other areas of the country where they can be found. However, they cause more damage to the property than to crops due to their large body size.

Factors responsible for the escalation of human primate conflict

Before implementing any mitigative actions to minimize crop losses caused by primates it is important to understand the reasons why primates visit human settlements and damage crops.

 

Some of the factors contributing to the escalation of human primate conflict

  1. Deforestation and the loss of natural habitats of the primates due to various development projects or removing the preferred vegetation and planting cash crops

Primates get isolated into small forest patches because of the fragmentation of the forests which increase the competition for food and space between species. When the resources get depleted in the natural habitat due to competition, the animals frequent the villages in search of food.听 Further establishment of oil palm plantations by removing rubber plantations which are preferred habitats of the western and southern purple faced langurs instigate the same results.

  1. Improper waste disposal sites

People conveniently dispose kitchen garbage, garbage collected from restaurants and from tourist destination sites by the side of the roads or at the edge of the village without proper coverage. These open garbage dumping sites attract many wild animals. Macaques and even langurs visit such garbage dumping places expecting to find food easily. Once these primates visit to these garbage dumping sites, it is inevitable that they visit the nearby by houses, home gardens and farms in search of food. Monkeys with better quality, nutritious food grow and breed rapidly and increase their numbers faster. This situation compelled them to further invade human dwellings and to access more food which has contributed to the currently observed human-primate conflict.

  1. Providing food for primates

The presence of primates is a common site in many Buddhist and Hindu temples in 91传媒, where primates are protected and tolerated by the peoples鈥 religious and cultural beliefs.听 They receive food offerings by the local pilgrims and tourists that visit the area daily in large numbers.听 Since the pilgrims, monks and the tourists are tolerant of these monkeys, the monkeys are quite habituated to humans and freely range in and around the sacred sites undisturbed (Nahallage and Huffman, 2013).听 The constant supply of food given by the visitors keeps primates around the temple grounds and during periods of food scarcity, both the gray langurs and toque macaques were observed to obtain food forcibly from people or directly from houses or shops, leading to an intensified human – primate conflict.

 

Why is it difficult and more complicated to control the damage caused by macaques?

  • Country wide distribution

Compared with other wildlife (elephants, peacocks etc.) macaques are distributed in every district of 91传媒, therefore the problem is not concentrated to one part of the island.

  • Large numbers with high growth rate

Having large number of individuals in a group due to their multimale 鈥 multi female social organization, high growth rate, small body size and greater flexibility in body structure results in causing more damage at a time than any other species.

  • Occupation of both arboreal and terrestrial habitat

Their ability to locomote on tress as well as on ground makes it difficult to use most of the controlling methods used for other wildlife.

  • Greater learning ability

Macaques are intelligent animals, and they have a greater learning ability compared with other wildlife animals therefore it is difficult to use any long term control methods to keep them away from the crops as they readily learn to overcome these controlling methods in a very short time.

  • No one effective control method

Same control method cannot be used to prevent the crop damage cause by macaques in all the parts of the country. The control methods depend on the climatic and topography of the area, types of the crops grown, seasonality, distance to the village from the nearby forest, availability of food in their natural habitat and the methods of crop guarding by humans etc.

  • No proper and accurate estimation of crop damage

There are no proper records of the types of crop damage caused by primates in each part of the county with the intensity of the damage and accurate calculation of economic loss or the approximate population sizes of the primates. This makes it difficult to get a clear idea of the extent of the problem to execute proper controlling measures. Implementation of controlling strategies based on inaccurate data or without proper knowledge on the primate behaviors will be disadvantageous to the conservation of these endemic species and to find a long-term solution to the prevailing problem.

Mitigative strategies to minimize crop losses due to primates

For decades people in primate habitat countries have been trying to find solutions to mitigate this problem on their own by using different methods.听 The villagers and famers have been using various traditional and modern methods to chase or keep monkeys away from their villagers and farms. Scientists have research on various aspects of this problem to find plausible solutions. However, effective long-term control methods have not yet been identified so far. Some of the practices they use or propose by the scientists can be broadly categorize as below.

 

Methods to keep monkeys away from the villages

  • Implementation of proper garbage disposal system

Proper garbage disposal and collection mechanisms should be implemented with the help of the relevant government authorities to prevent people dumping garbage on open sites. The villagers should be encouraged and provide the knowhow to produce compost using the food waste that could be used as organic fertilizer for their home gardening crops.

  • Construction of physical barriers and buffer zones

Construction of physical barriers could prevent monkeys from entering to the villages or to farms, such as live fences (thorny scrubs, fences grown with chili plants, cactus etc.), 听听听听听听听听听听听听听听听听Electric fences, Buffer zones (clearing away a strip of land adjacent to the farms), 听听听听听听听听听听听听听听听听Obstruct their movements by cutting branches they often use for locomotion to听听听听听听听听听听听听听听听听 enter to the village or to farms

  • Let monkeys know that the villages are not safe places for them

Chase the monkeys aways from the villages by using fire crackers, guard dogs, catapults, air rifles, painting a captured monkey and then release to the group, hanging of dead monkey on a tree, using stones or sounds, hanging of shiny objects on tress, use of traps, using replicas of guns, use of wooden or acrylic face masks etc.

  • Stop feeding monkeys

Monkeys quickly get use to people feeding them because they do not have to make an effort to find food for themselves by foraging in natural vegetation. 听However, in instances where they do not get this free food take the food by force from people or steal food from nearby shops and houses.

 

References

Ananda, P.A.S.听 (2000). Sinhala Janashruthiya saha sathwa lokaya. Godage Publishers, Colombo, 152pp.

Cabral, S.J., T. Prasad, T.P. Deeyagoda, S.N. Weerakkody, A. Nadarajah & R. Rudran (2018). Investigating 91传媒鈥檚 human-monkey conflict and developing a strategy to mitigate the problem. Journal of Threathed Taxa 10(3): 11391 鈥 11398. http://doi.org/ 10.11609/jot.3657.10.3.11391-11398

Campbell -Smith, G., Simonjorang, H.V.P., Leader 鈥 Williams, N. & L. Matthew (2010). Local attitudes and perceptions toward crop-raiding by orangutans (Pongo abelii) and other nonhuman primates in Northern Sumatra, Indonesia. American Journal of Primatology 72: 866 鈥 876. http://doi.org/10.1002/ajp.20822

Dela, J.D.S., Padmalal, U.K.G.K., 听Sathurusinghe, A. & 听Silva, A.S.S. (2016). Bringing back Semnopithecus vetulus nestor from the living dead to the visibly thriving: Identification of threats and prescriptions. In: Proceedings of the 5th Asian Primate Symposium, 91传媒. p.听 51.

Dela, J. D.S. (2012). Western purple 鈥 faced langurs (Semnopithecus vetulus nestor) feed on ripe and ripening fruits in human-modified environments in 91传媒. International Journal of Primatology 33: 40 鈥 72. http://doi.org/10.1007/s10764-011-9538-8

Dela, J. D.S. (2007). Seasonal food use strategies of Semnopithecus vetulus nestor, at Panadura and Piliyandala, 91传媒. International Journal of Primatology 28: 607 鈥 626. http://doi.org/10.1007/s10764-007-9150-8

Dittus, W.P.J., Gunathilake, S. & Felder, M. (2019). Assessing public perceptions and solutions to human-monkey conflict from 50 years in 91传媒. Folia Primatologica 90: 89 鈥 108. https://doi.org/10.1159/000496025

Dittus, W. P.J. 听(2012). Problems with pest monkeys: myths and solutions. Loris 26(3/4) 18 鈥 23.

Fungo, B. (2011). A review of crop raiding around protected areas: Nature, Control and research gaps). Environmental Research Journal 5(2): 87 鈥 92.

Hsiao, S. S., Ross, C., Hill, C.M. & Wallace, G.E. (2013). Crop-raiding deterrents around Budongo forest reserve: an evaluation through farmer actions and perceptions. Oryx 47 (4): 569 -577. http://doi.org/10.1017/S0030605312000853

Hill, C.M. & Wallace, G.E. (2012). Crop protection and conflict mitigation: reducing the cost of living alongside non-human primate. Biodiversity Conservation 21: 2569 鈥 2587. http://doi.org/10.1007/s10531-012-0318-y

Hill, C.M. & Webber, A. (2010). Perceptions of Nonhuman Primates in Human-Wildlife Conflict Scenarios. American Journal of Primatology听72(10): 919-24. http://doi.org/10.1002/ajp_20845

Hill, C.M. (2000). A conflict of interest between people and baboons: crop raiding in Uganda. International Journal of Primatology 21: 299 鈥 315. 10.1023/A:1005481605637

Huffman, M.A., Nahallage, C.A.D., Hasegawa, H., Ekanayake, S., De Silava, L.D.G.G. & Athauda, I.R.K. (2013). Preliminary survey of the distribution of four potentially zoonotic parasite species among primates in 91传媒. Journal of the National Science Foundation 91传媒 41 (4): 319 鈥 326.

Knox, R. (1681). An historical relation of the island Ceylon in East -Indies. Richard Chefwell Publishers, London, 189pp.

Lang,听J.M.听&听 Benbow, M.E.听 (2013). Species Interactions and Competition.听Nature Education Knowledge听4(4): 8.

Marchal, V, & Hill C. M. (2009). Primate crop-raiding: A study of local perceptions in four villages in North Sumathra, Indonesia. Primates 24(1): 107 鈥 116. http://doi.org/10.1896/052.024.0109

Mc Guinness, S. & Tylor, D. (2014). Farmer鈥檚 perceptions and actions to decrease crop raiding by forest-dwelling primates around a Rwandan forest fragment. Human Dimensions of Wildlife 19(2): 179 鈥 190.

Nahallage, C.A.D., Dasanayake, D.A.M., Hewamanna, D.T. and Ananada, D.T.H. (2022)

Utilization of home garden crops by primates and current status of human-primate interface at Galigamuwa Divisional Secretariat Division in Kegalle District, 91传媒. Journal of threaten Taxa, 14(1): 20478鈥20487,

 

Nahallage, C.A.D. (2019). An Ethnological Perspective of 91传媒n Primates. Vidyodaya Current Research 1: 27 鈥 37.

 

Nahallage, C.A.D. & Huffman, M.A. (2013). Macaque – Human interactions in past and present day in 91传媒, pp. 135-148. In: Radhakrishna, A., M.A. Huffman & A. Singha (eds.). Macaque Connections: Corporation and Conflict between Humans and Macaques. Springer Publication, London, 255 pp.

Nahallage, C.A.D., Huffman, M.A., Kuruppu N. & Weerasingha, T. (2008). Diurnal primates in 91传媒 and people鈥檚 perception of them. Primate Conservation 23: 81-88. http://doi.

Perera, M. & Vandercone, R. (2016). Temporal Patterns of Crop Raiding by Diurnal Primates in and around the Kaludiyapokuna Forest Reserve in the Dry Zone of 91传媒. In: Proceedings of the 5th Asian Primate Symposium. 91传媒. p. 48.

Prasad, T., Cabral, S.J., Weerakkody, S.N. & Rudran, R. (2016). Human Monkey Conflict in 91传媒 and Mitigation Efforts. In: Proceedings of the 5th Asian Primate Symposium, 91传媒. p 45.

Rudran, R. (2007). A survey of 91传媒鈥檚 endangered and endemic western purple-faced langur (Trachipithecus vetulus nestor). Primate Conservation 22: 139 鈥 144. http://doi.org/10.1896/052.022.0115

Rudran, R. & Kotagama, S. (2016). Strategy to conserve and coexist with 91传媒鈥檚 monkeys. In: Proceedings of the 5th Asian Primate Symposium, 91传媒. p. 17.

Siljander, M., Kuronen, T., Johansson, T., Munyao, M.N., & Pellikka, P. K. E. (2020).听Primates on the farm 鈥 spatial patterns of human鈥搘ildlife conflict in forest-agricultural landscape mosaic in Taita Hills, Kenya. Applied Geography 117: e102185.听 /10.1016/j.apgeog. 2020.102185

Strum, S.C. (2010). The development of primate raiding: Implications for management and conservation. International Journal of Primatology 31: 133 鈥 156. http://doi.org/10.1007/s10764-009-9387-5.

Warren, Y. (2008). Crop-raiding baboons (Papio anubis) and defensive farmers: A West African Perspective. West African Journal of Applied Ecology 14: 1 鈥 11.

 

 

 

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The Macaque (Rilawa) Export Debate: Understanding the Ecological Risks and Benefits – Prof Charmalie Nahallage /blog/the-macaque-export-debate-understanding-the-ecological-risks-and-benefits-prof-charmalie-nahallage/ Mon, 17 Apr 2023 08:44:11 +0000 /?p=61427 91传媒 is considering exporting around 100,000 toque macaques to China for zoological gardens, a decision that has raised concerns over its ecological impact. Prof Charmalie Nahallage, an expert in […]

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91传媒 is considering exporting around 100,000 toque macaques to China for zoological gardens, a decision that has raised concerns over its ecological impact. Prof Charmalie Nahallage, an expert in primatology from the 91传媒, with over two decades of experience in primatology, has emphasized the importance of considering the impact of removing a large number of animals from their natural habitat.

Macaques play a crucial role in preserving biodiversity and maintaining ecological balance. Removing a large number of animals from an area could disrupt the ecological balance, and therefore any action should be done under intense supervision after a thorough scientific investigation. It is difficult to determine the exact population of macaques in 91传媒, as well as the estimation of economic loss due to crop damage, because it is challenging to determine the damage caused by one specific species alone. The inaccurate population estimation of macaques in 91传媒 and the estimation of economic loss due to crop damage are additional issues, questions the validity of the decision and the base of the policy/decision made.

The issue of crop damage caused by macaques is not limited to 91传媒 but is a global problem faced by many countries with different species of macaques. With more than 20 species of macaques found throughout Asia, many countries face a human-macaque conflict due to crop damage caused by these monkeys. While 91传媒 has its own species of macaques, it should examine how neighboring countries are tackling the problem and implement sustainable, long-term measures to mitigate the issue. Accurate data on the population density and economic loss caused by crop damage is crucial for implementing effective control strategies. To address this issue sustainably, 91传媒 should learn from the strategies adopted by other countries and implement a coordinated approach involving all relevant stakeholders, including primate experts, relevant ministries, and government departments.

The issue of crop damage caused by macaques is not a recent occurrence, with historical accounts describing crop raiding by primates. Macaques are responsible for causing more damage to crops than the two langur species due to their omnivorous feeding pattern, preference to live close to human habitats, ability to adapt to any environmental conditions, and large group sizes. In places where crops are a significant source of income, the impact of crop damage caused by macaques is felt acutely.

Accurate data on the population density and economic loss caused by macaques is crucial to implement effective control strategies. The science of primatology can be utilized to understand the behavior and biology of macaques and develop effective solutions to manage the human-primate conflict. As a primatology specialist with over 20 years of experience, Prof Charmalie Nahallage aims to provide a broader understanding of the issue and its possible solutions to the readers.

Macaques are primates that belong to the primate group, which also includes humans. 91传媒 has five species of non-human primates, including three subspecies of macaques: the dry zone toque macaques, the wet zone toque macaques, and the highland macaques, each of which is distributed in different climatic zones in the country. Humans, macaques, and langurs share many similarities and requirements for survival, which leads to interactions between them when they share the same environment. These interactions can have negative impacts, especially when competition for resources increases, potentially harming one or both species.

Protecting primates in 91传媒 is important because they are endemic to the country. “They contribute to preserving the high biodiversity and help maintain the biological balance by contributing to the natural biological control of species. Additionally, they also help in seed dispersal” said Prof Nahallage.

Prof. Charmalie Nahallage is a well-known primatologist and Professor of Anthropology at the 91传媒. After receiving her Masters and Doctoral degrees in Primatology from Kyoto University’s Primate Research Institute, she has been actively involved in conducting research on primate distribution, phylogeography, and human-primate conflict in collaboration with her colleagues at Kyoto University, Japan. Prof Nahallage has received several awards for her international research publications and scientific contributions and is currently involved in collaborative research projects with Japan, United Kingdom, and Canada.

As Prof Nahallage highlighted, the decision to export macaques should be made with careful consideration of the ecological impact. It is important to identify long and short-term measures to sustainably mitigate the issue of crop damage caused by macaques and to control the macaque population to conserve these endemic monkey species and preserve biodiversity in the long run.

At the end, still the question remains: Is this the best solution we could find as humans taking decisions for fellow civilization and wildlife?

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91传媒: Where Tradition and Modernity Meet – Dr.M.G.Lalith Ananda. /blog/university-of-sri-jayewardenepura-where-tradition-and-modernity-meet-dr-m-g-lalith-ananda/ Wed, 29 Dec 2021 09:53:32 +0000 /?p=56377 As evidenced by the historical chronicles such as Deepavamsa and Mahavamsa, the field of education in 91传媒 has a long history spanning over two thousand years. What characterizes this […]

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As evidenced by the historical chronicles such as Deepavamsa and Mahavamsa, the field of education in 91传媒 has a long history spanning over two thousand years. What characterizes this evolutionary trajectory is the distinctive association of the learning centres with major Pirivenas or monastic centres in the country. The Mahavihara (3rd Century B.C.), the Abhayagiri Mahavihara (1st Century B.C.) and the Jetawana Mahavihara (3rd Century A.D.) can be mentioned as institutions of higher learning that have exemplified the virtues of contemporary academic education. These educational institutions had served as monastery educational institutions in various parts of 91传媒 where both the laity and the clergy had studied. These monasteries were later renamed as Pirivenas.

The 91传媒 claims such historic lineage being first established as the Vidyodaya Pirivena in 1873 by the Most Ven. Hikkaduwe Sri Sumangala Thera. The reconstitutions, Vidyodaya Pirivena as Vidyodaya University of Ceylon in 1958, as Vidyodaya Campus of the University of Ceylon in 1972 and as the 91传媒 in 1978, are main milestones of this evolutionary pathway. The Vidyodaya University established in 1959, under the Parliamentary Act No. 45 of 1958, with five faculties; Buddhist Studies, Philosophy, Languages, Arts, and Ayurveda, commenced its academic activities under the pioneering Vice Chancellorship of the Most Ven. Welivitiye Soratha Maha Thera.

Since then, the 91传媒 has undergone significant changes, especially in the more recent past, showcasing its eager embrace of modernity. The new faculties of the university have not only increased its capacity and potential to serve the country as one of the leading centres of higher learning, but also have made it an institution that claims a high reputation for academic excellence.

鈥淧rosper lives through education鈥

Driven by its vision 鈥淧rosper lives through education鈥 and mission 鈥淒evelop globally competent citizens through our education for a sustainable future, drawing inspirations from our cultural heritage and wisdom鈥, the 91传媒 is home to13,000 undergraduate students thus becoming the largest university in the country in terms of student population. Presently, the university has eight Faculties; namely, Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Applied Sciences, Faculty of Management Studies and Commerce, Faculty of Medical Sciences, Faculty of Graduate Studies, Faculty of Technology, Faculty of Engineering and Faculty of Allied Health Sciences. The newest addition to this composition is the Faculty of Dental Sciences which was established in December this year, making it the ninth faculty of the university and the second faculty for dental sciences in the country. The Faculty of Technology with its state of the art faculty complex provides education in this most sought after field, and is the first technology faculty in the country. In keeping with the university鈥檚 pursuit for new horizons that can fulfil contemporary needs of the country and realize its developmental goals, plans are afoot to establish a Faculty of Urban and Aquatic Bio resources. Currently the University has 79 departments of study catering to various fields, with further fine-grained specializations, which continue to grow.

The university understands the need for strategic planning for optimal utilization and improvement of resources to provide an effective service for the advancement and dissemination of knowledge. This is envisioned in the Corporate Plan, prepared by taking into consideration both local and global contexts and developments, through an extensive process of consultation and conversation with all the stakeholders, with a stock-taking every five years. Over the years, the university has strived to improve the quality and relevance of its teaching, learning and research in line with local trends and international standards, thereby seeking a comfortable niche in the international market.

What makes the 91传媒 an outstanding higher seat of learning in the country is its exceptional outreach through research, innovation, and community service. At present, the university has 23 research centres, established within the respective faculties and operated under committed and distinguished staff. They cover vital areas as water, materials, dengue, cancer, kidney, biotechnology and neurosciences, forestry and environment, management studies and commerce, robotics and intelligent systems, marine science, mindfulness and multidisciplinary studies, to name a few.

With the establishment of the university鈥檚 Research Council, all these research centres have been brought under its purview creating a standard research and development platform to streamline research-related activities. The university joins the national community through a broad-based agenda comprising numerous community service projects undertaken by both the staff and the students, workshops, donations, conferences, and other outreach activities, while its international affiliations can be seen in MoUs, study tours, student exchange programmes, collaborative research and international conferences. The university鈥檚 distinctive outreach and national and international contribution was nowhere so much felt and explicit than the crucial times we live in today at the height of the COVID-19 global pandemic.

Global acclaim

Thus, the university鈥檚 outstanding role and contribution to research on COVID-19 has received global acclaim, while at national level, it has been playing a tremendous role in helping the country in data collection, PCR testing, and coordination with relevant authorities in matters of such national concern. In the years to come, the university aims to become one of the leading universities in South Asia, reaching further excellence in teaching and research, while preserving its traditional glory.

With such a legacy and a way forward, the 91传媒 proudly holds its 46th Convocation on December 28, 29, and 30, 2021 at the BMICH, Colombo. This year, a total of 3,214 graduands will receive their degrees fulfilling one of their long-cherished dreams.

This number comprises 884 graduands from the Faculty of Humanities & Social Sciences, 554 from the Faculty of Applied Sciences, 1,201 from the Faculty of Management Studies & Commerce, 222 from the Faculty of Medical Sciences and 353 from the Faculty of Graduate Studies. The university administration has taken extra precautionary measures to hold this convocation by adhering to all health guidelines applicable to the present pandemic situation and thus to ensure the safety of all. Therefore, the participation of the academic staff will be limited. Nevertheless, the grandeur and simplicity that characterize this glorious event will remain undiminished.

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What sort of a population shock will be caused by COVID-19? /blog-si/impact_pop_covid_19/ Mon, 06 Sep 2021 10:58:15 +0000 /?p=54911 We are in 2021 now and things really have changed drastically but have it all changed according to what we used to imagine as kids? Do you remember thinking that […]

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We are in 2021 now and things really have changed drastically but have it all changed according to what we used to imagine as kids? Do you remember thinking that there would be flying cars and you would have to start worrying about 鈥渁ir traffic鈥 than your local day-to-day traffic on the road? Road traffic has indeed reduced these days but it is not because people are flying their way to destinations; it is because we鈥檙e all stuck at home, working from home, going to school but still from home. With all the things happening in the country and around the world, have you not once thought or even joked around with your family or friends saying 鈥淲e might actually be on the verge of the End of the World鈥? And thinking of the End of the World, do you hear an echo from the past? Remember 2012? The supposed year of Doomsday, the End of the World!

For all those oblivious to the speculations; 2012 was the year that marked the end of one of the cycles of the ancient Mayan Calendar but, for those who had a more scientific perspective, 2012 was the year that newly discovered planet Nibiru was supposedly headed towards Earth entailing a catastrophic collision (NASA, 2012). Regardless of the perspective, it all added up to the End of the World in 2012! So 2012 was a year filled with too many end-of-the-world jokes, and also a fair amount of genuine fear. But thankfully you are luckily alive to be reading this article! So 2012 ended up being a typical year for everyone, OR did it? Just have a look at Figure 1.

Figure 1: Population growth of 91传媒 (annual %) 1960鈥2018

The above graph depicts the annual population growth of 91传媒 as a percentage, across the past 6 decades. This decreasing pattern is common for all countries with the decrease in fertility rate (total births per woman); for in an industrialized society, having a higher number of children is considered more of an economic burden and as once stated by the UN 鈥 鈥淒evelopment is the best contraceptive鈥. But presumably, you must have noticed an atypical drop in the population growth, now take a look at the year which the drop corresponds to; 2012! Was 91传媒 unknowingly on the brink of Doomsday? What sort of a story is the data trying to tell us? Let鈥檚 Explore!

So fear not dear reader, this actually has nothing to do with the End of the World. What 91传媒 experienced in 2012 is more commonly referred to as a short-term population shock. Short-term population shock is an abrupt reduction in human population size; the many causes of it being short-term events such as pandemics, wars, famines, or other catastrophes (Wikipedia, 2021). So what caused the 2012 population shock in 91传媒? In the latter part of 2011, 91传媒 was impacted by the floods described as the worst for the last five decades by the people who were affected by the flood. This affected 1.2 million people and 18 out of 25 districts across the island; flooding through paddy fields, land fisheries, and field crops (IFRS, 2012).

What about 2020?

91传媒 has been battling the COVID-19 pandemic since 2020 and the country is yet to recover from it. So it got us curious, what sort of a population shock will be caused by COVID-19? We decided to quantify this through Excess Mortality; the number of deaths from all causes during a crisis above and beyond what we would have expected to see under 鈥榥ormal鈥 conditions. Excess mortality can be measured in many ways, one of them being P-score (Giattino, et al., 2021). P-score calculates excess mortality as the percentage difference between the number of deaths in 2020鈥2021 and the average number of deaths in the same period over the years 2015鈥2019. And hence, we used P-score in our analysis considering the time period of one year.

So now let鈥檚 get to the FUN part of the article! How did we actually predict the total number of deaths in 2020 and 2021? Well, we considered two components to the total number of deaths in 2020 and 2021; total deaths that would have occurred without COVID-19 and total deaths due to COVID-19 and voil脿 you get the total number of deaths for 2020 and 2021, assuming all other conditions remain the same (It鈥檚 not truly statistics until we have an assumption right?).

Let鈥檚 forecast 91传媒鈥檚 Annual Deaths without COVID-19!

Figure 2: Time series plot of Total Annual Deaths of 91传媒 1948鈥2018

The total annual deaths without COVID-19 was calculated by fitting an ARIMA (Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average) model to the deaths of 91传媒 from 1948鈥2018 (Figure 2). An ARIMA model dear reader is a statistical analysis model that enables us to use time series data to predict future trends based on past values.

Initially, the data was divided into two parts as training and testing set with an 80:20 ratio. The model was fit to the training set consisting of annual deaths from 1948 to 2003 and the corresponding model error was calculated through the testing set consisting of annual deaths from 2004 to 2018 . We were able to identify visually an increasing (upward) trend without cyclical variation and hence to overcome the non-stationary pattern of the data differencing was applied. In order to identify the model, Autocorrelation function (ACF) and Partial Autocorrelation function (PACF) plots with 5% level of significance limits for the auto correlations were generated and the results showed exponential decaying pattern on ACF and PACF got cut-off at lag 1 (Figure 3, Figure 4). Thus we can decide on the initial guess of the resulting ARIMA model as ARIMA(1,2,0).

Figure 3: Autocorrelation Function for Total Deaths

Figure 4: Partial Autocorrelation Function for Total Deaths

How did we choose the best model?

Considering ARIMA(1,2,0) as our initial model, we fit multiple ARIMA models and the resulting model fit measures and error rates are as shown in Table 1.

Table 1: Information Criterion (IC) measures and errors rated of fitted ARIMA models

Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) and Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) are both mathematical methods used to evaluate how well a model fits the data it was generated from; accordingly a lower Criterion value indicates a better fit. The Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) is calculated by applying the model to the testing data set. The calculation of the MAPE is defined as follows;

According to Table 1; it can be seen that all the fitted ARIMA models have comparatively similar AIC and BIC values but there is a huge difference in the MAPE values. As it is stated above, it can be seen that both the information criterion values are calculated with regards to the same data that is fitted to the model, in our case the training data set but, the MAPE value is calculated with regards to an additional set of data points, in our case the testing data set. Therefore, giving more prominence to MAPE values; despite not having the lowest AIC and BIC, ARIMA(1,2,0) model was concluded as the best model for our purpose.

Additionally, the fitted ARIMA(1,2,0) model also satisfied the Ljung-Box test at 5% level of significance with a p-value of 0.182, thus validating the model assumption that the data is stationary.

What is the Excess Mortality that we predict?

We obtained the forecasted annual deaths without COVID-19 for each year through our model. The COVID-19 deaths for 2020 were easily obtained through the publications of the Epidemiology Unit (Epidemiology Unit, 2020) and for 2021, the deaths due to COVID-19 were obtained with the aid of the COVID-19 projected forecasts published by the Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME, 2021).

Table 2: Calculation of P-Score

So dear reader, after a bit of modelling with the data we were able to obtain the values in Table 2 for the years 2020 and 2021. Accordingly, our model has forecasted a 9% and 17% excess mortality for 91传媒 for the year 2020 and 2021 comparative to the last 5 years. In the span of just a year, COVID-19 has almost DOUBLED the excess mortality for 91传媒. The immediate cause of the increase of excess mortality in 2021 can be considered as underestimating the potential of the pandemic as a country.

In 2020 91传媒 managed to get things under control and while the rest of the world was curious as to how 91传媒 successfully curtailed the coronavirus pandemic (Deutsche Welle, 2020); we 91传媒ns had no idea that the next wave will hit the country in the upcoming months and we would end up teaching the world how not to respond to COVID-19 (The Diplomat, 2021). So by now, it has become clear that having no plans regarding the possibility of a next wave has led to a needless amount of deaths in the country in 2021. In all of this, it is important to keep in mind that these projections and how the future will actually play out will depend on what we are doing today.

On a final note鈥

Curious as to what the impact of COVID-19 has been on the Population of 91传媒, our analysis was carried out using many assumptions and taking a more visual approach towards identifying the best ARIMA model. But, more accurate predictions may be obtained through applying much more elaborated time series models that can capture latent patterns within the data much more efficiently.

Authors: , ,

The post What sort of a population shock will be caused by COVID-19? appeared first on USJ - 91传媒.

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The post 喾喾掄动喾娻穩颅喽穵喽粪窂颅喾喽亨窔 喾勦窂 喽编窉喽宦穩喽穵‍喽 喾冟陡喾忇盯 喽窐喾傕穵喽о窉喽亨窔 喾冟窋喾冟秱颅喽亨窛颅喽溹逗 喽膏穭喾徛稜喾忇痘喾娻逗 喽洁稓喾娻穫喾娻陡喽编穵 喽⑧逗颅喽窉颅喽洁稓 喾喾冟痘 83喽氞穵 喽嗋逗喾 喾喾呧冻喾 喽窉喾喾捖穬喾惵痘喾掄逗 喽编窉喽 喽氞痘喽亨窉 – 喽⑧穵‍喽亨窔喾傕穵喽 喽膏穭喾忇稜喾忇痘喾娻逗 喽秽董喾娻侗喾冟窉喽秽窉 喽呧痘喽傕稖喽 appeared first on USJ - 91传媒.

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2021 喾冟窅喽脆穵喽窅喽膏穵喽多痘 喽膏穬 喽脆穮喽膏窋喾喾愢侗喾 喽窉喽 喾冟侗喾娻栋喾‍喽亨窂喾喾氞董喾 喾佮穵‍喽秽窊 喽⑧逗喾喽秽穵喽班侗喽脆窋喽 喽多窅喽穵喽稖喾忇侗喾 喽嗋动喾忇穭喽编窂喽溹窂喽秽逗喾權侗喾 喽脆穬喾 喽溹窉喽 喽窉喽编穩喽 喽膏窓喽编穵喽 喽窋喽膏穵 喽秽窚喽о窋 喾勦窉喾冟穵 喽呧穭喾冟锭 喽戉稓喽窋 喾喽编窋 喽窅喽 喽溹董 喾勦窅喽氞窉 喾喾掄逗. 喽ム窂喽窉 喾勦窉喽穩喽窋喽编穵喽溹窔 喾冟窛 喾冟窋喾冟窋喽膏穵 喾勦窛 喽溹窋喽稓喽侗 喾勦窛 喽窔喾佮洞喾忇督喽氞逗喽编穵喽溹窔 喾佮窛喽氞窂喽洁窂喽 喾勦窛 喽秽穭喾掄董喾, 喽氞窊喽秽穵喽窉 喽编窂喽膏逗 喽脆陡喽稓喾 喾佮窔喾 喽氞窚喽 喾冟陡喾 喽溹董喾 喽洁稓喾娻穫喾娻陡喽编穵 喽⑧逗喽窉喽洁稓 喾喾掄动喾娻穩喽窂喽溹窔 喽编窉喾冟督 喾冟窉喽秽窋喽 喽穩喾 喽溹窓喽 喽编窅喽熰窋喽窋 喽窋喽膏穵 喾喽洁窂喾 喽窉喾喽亨窉喽编窔 喾喾掄动喾娻穩喽穵 喽夃董喾掄穭喾忇穬喽亨窓喾勦窉 喽呧穩喾冟侗喾 喽脆痘喾掄稜喾娻丁喾氞动喽 喽编窉喽膏窂 喽氞痘喽编窋 喾喾冟穵 喽穩喽穵 喽脆窉喽о窋喾喽氞穵 喽氞窉喽亨穩喾 喾勦陡喾忇痘 喽氞窓喽秽窋喽窋 喽多穩 喽脆穩喾冟侗喾娻侗喽氞穵喽 喽亨侗喾娻侗 喽窅喽 喾冟窉喽о窉喽亨窂喾勦窋 喾冟穵喾喽洁穵喽 喽窓喽编窓喽氞窉.

1938 喽⑧窋喽洁窉 喽膏穬 20 喾喾愢侗喾 喽窉喽 喽溹窂喽洁穵喽洁窔 喽膏订喾喽洁陡喾斷督喾娻督 喽溹陡喾權穭喾掄动喾 喽⑧逗喽窉喽洁稓 喽陡喾娻洞喽窊喽编穵喽溹窔 喽窓喽о窋 喽脆窋喽东喾斷穩喽编穵 喽洁窓喾冟窉喽编穵 喽⑧侗喾娻陡 喽洁窂喽粪逗 喽氞穮 喽犩侗喾娻动喾‍喽 喽洁稓喾娻穫喾娻陡喽编穵 喾喾涏动喾‍喽亨痘喽穵喽 喽⑧逗喽窉喽洁稓 喾呧动喽秽窋喾喾 喽窓喽膏穩喾娻洞喾掄逗喽编穵 喾喾掄穬喾掄侗喾 喽编窉喾冟窉 喾喾冟逗 喽戉穮喽灌窋喽窋 喽氞督 喽膏窎喽洁窉喽 喽呧栋喾‍喽亨窂喽脆侗喽 喽洁抖喾 喽窊喽膏锭 喾喾忇动喾娻动喾斷穩 喽氞侗喾掄锭喾 喾喾掄动喾斷穭喽洁锭 喽囙董喾斷穮喽穵 喽氞痘喽 喽洁动喾. 喽洁稓喾娻穫喾娻陡喽编穵 喽痘喾斷穩喾忇锭 喽脆窂喾冟督喾 喽呧栋喾‍喽亨窂喽脆侗喽 喾勦陡喾忇痘 喽氞窉喽秽窊喽膏锭 喽窉喾喽亨窉喽编窔 喾喾掄动喾斷穭喽洁穵 喽氞窉喾勦窉喽脆逗喽氞锭 喽 喽囙董喾斷穮喽穵 喾喾撪陡喽 喾冟窉喽窋 喾喾栢逗喾 喽窓喽膏穩喾斷洞喾掄逗喽编穵 喾冟窔喾喾 喽呧穩喾佮穵‍喽亨董喾 喾冟冻喾勦窂 喾喾掄穩喾掄栋 喽脆穮喾忇董喾娻穩喽洁锭 喾冟穵喽窂喽 喽膏窂喽秽窋喾喾撪陡喾 喽洁窅喽多窎 喽多窅喾喾掄侗喾. 喽溹窂喽洁穵喽洁窔 喽膏穭喾掄侗喾娻动, 喽脆窂喽编动喾斷痘 喾冟窂喽编穵喽 喽⑧窛喽编穵 喾勦窂 喽呧稖喽洁穩喽穵喽 喽氞侗喾掄穫喾娻定 喽穵喾喾掄董喾撪逗喾掄稓 喾喾掄动喾斷穭喽洁穵喾喽洁窉喽编穵 喽呧栋喾‍喽亨窂喽脆侗喽 喽洁窅喽多窎 喽洁稓喾娻穫喾娻陡喽编穵 喽痘喾斷东 喾冟窉喾冟窋喾喾 喽痘喽 喾喾掄斗喾忇稖喽亨稓喾掄侗喾 喽嬥董喾娻董喾撪痘喾娻东喾 喽秽窂喽⑧稓喾撪逗 喾喾掄动喾‍喽亨窂喽洁逗喽 喽囙董喾斷穮喽穵喾 喾喾掄穪喾娻穩喾喾掄动喾‍喽亨窂喽洁逗 喽脆穵‍喽秽穩喾氞穪喽 喾冟陡喽穵 喾喾栢逗喾氞逗. 喽秽窂喽⑧稓喾撪逗 喾喾掄动喾‍喽亨窂喽洁逗喾氞动喾 喽脆穵‍喽秽稓喽 喽氞穮 喽稓喾娻穫喽窂 喾勦窔喽窋喾喾權侗喾 喽洁稓喾娻穫喾娻陡喽编穵 喽⑧逗喽窉喽洁稓 喾佮窉喾傕穵‍喽亨逗喾忇锭 喽窉喾喽亨窉喽编窔 喽氞窊喽秽穵喽窉喽膏董喾 喾喾‍喽亨窂喽脆窂喽秽窉喽氞逗喽氞窋 喾勦窂 喽多窞喽穵喽 喽窂喽编洞喽窉喽亨稓喾 喾喾 喽脆窊喽о痘喾 喽 喽嗋抖喾娻痘喾 喽呧侗喾斷穬喾娻陡喽秽东 喽穵‍喽亨窂喽溹逗 喽窉喽编窂 喽溹窅喽编窊喽膏锭 喽粪窂喽溹穵‍喽亨逗 喽戉穮喽灌窉喽窉. 喽嬥穬喾冟穵 喽呧栋喾‍喽亨窂喽脆侗喽 喾冟冻喾勦窂 喽洁秱喽氞窂 喾喾掄穪喾娻穩喾喾掄动喾‍喽亨窂喽洁逗喾 喽夃秱喽⑧窉喽编窔喽秽窋 喽脆窊喽ㄠ逗喽 喽囙董喾斷穮喽穵 喾喾斷东喾 喽⑧逗喽窉喽洁稓 喽痘喾斷东喽亨窂 喽呧动喾忇穮 喽呧栋喾‍喽亨逗喽 喾喽秽穵喾傕逗喾 喾喾掄穪喾掄穫喾娻锭喽陡 喾佮窉喾傕穵‍喽亨逗喾 喽多穩喽 喽脆董喾 喾喾栢逗喾 喽脆穵‍喽秽懂喽 喽脆侗喾娻董喾 喾冟窂喽膏痘喾娻懂喾‍喽亨逗喽氞穵 喾冟穭喾掄董喾 喽夃秱喽⑧窉喽编窔喽秽窋喾喾掄动喾‍喽亨窂喾 喽脆窉喾呧窉喽多冻 喽多窊. 喽戉穬喾. 喾冟窊. 喽嬥洞喾忇栋喾掄逗 喾勦窉喽膏窉 喽氞痘 喽溹董喾娻董喾氞逗. 喽 喾冟陡喽熰陡 喽斷穭喾斷锭 喽洁秱喽氞窂 喾喾掄穪喾娻穩喾喾掄动喾‍喽亨窂喽洁逗喾 喽夃秱喽⑧窉喽编窔喽秽窋 喽脆窊喽ㄠ逗喾 喽脆穪喾娻稜喾忇动喾 喽嬥洞喾忇栋喾 喽呧栋喾‍喽亨逗喽编逗 喾冟冻喾勦窂 喾喽 喽秽盯喽亨窔 喾佮窉喾傕穵‍喽亨董喾娻穩喽亨稓喾 喾勦窉喽膏窉 喾喾栢逗喾權侗喾 喽洁侗喾娻订喽编逗喾 喽夃陡喾娻洞喾撪痘喾掄逗喽洁穵 喽氞窚喽洁窔喽⑧穵 喾喾掄动喾‍喽亨窂喽亨董喽编逗喽 喽多窅喽赤窊 喽窂喽 喽氞穵‍喽秽窉喽亨窂喾喽洁窉 喽夃秱喽⑧窉喽编窔喽秽窋 喾喾掄动喾‍喽亨窂喾 (thermal process engineering) 喽脆窉喾呧窉喽多冻 喽呧栋喾‍喽‍喽亨侗喽亨侗喾娻穭喾 喽编窉喽秽董 喾喾撪陡喽 喽呧穩喽氞窂喾 喾冟窅喽洁穬喾掄东喾. 喽戉穭喾掄动喾 喽稓喾娻穩喽 喽洁动 喾冟窂喽膏痘喾娻懂喾‍喽亨逗 喽嬥动喾權穬喾 喽斷穭喾斷锭 喽呧侗喾娻穩喾掄侗喾 喽呧侗喾斷穬喾娻陡喽秽东 喽穵‍喽亨窂喽溹逗 喽窉喽编窂 喽溹董 喾勦窅喽氞窉 喾喾掄逗. 喽膏穭喾忇稜喾忇痘喾娻逗 喽┼订喾娻督喾 喽多穵‍喽秽逗喽编穵 喾冟穵喽脆窛喽洁穵喽┼窉喽编穵喽溹窔 喾冟窋喽脆痘喾撪稓喾娻穫喽氞董喾娻穩喽亨窓喽编穵 喽窂喽 喽夃秱喽⑧窉喽编窔喽秽窋 喾喾掄动喾‍喽亨窂喾 喽脆窉喾呧窉喽多冻 喽脆痘喾娻逗喾氞穫喽逗喽编穵喾勦窉 喽编窉喽秽董 喾喾 喽痘喾斷东 喽⑧逗喽窉喽洁稓 喾喾掄动喾娻穩喽窂 1966喽窊 The Influence of Prandtl Number and Surface Roughness on the Resistance of the Laminar Sub-Layer to Momentum and Heat Transfer 喽膏窅喽亨窓喽编穵 喽夃动喾掄痘喾掄洞喽穵 喽氞穮 喽脆痘喾娻逗喾氞穫喽 喽编窉喽多侗喾娻栋喽 喽嬥动喾權穬喾 喽洁侗喾娻订喽编穵 喽夃陡喾娻洞喾撪痘喾掄逗喽洁穵 喽氞窚喽洁窔喽⑧穵 喾喾掄动喾‍喽亨窂喽亨董喽编逗喾權侗喾 喽嗋稜喾忇痘喾娻逗 喽嬥洞喾忇栋喾掄逗 喽脆穵‍喽秽动喾忇侗喽 喽氞窓喽秽窉喽窉. 喽戉穭喾 喽洁窂 喽斷穭喾斷稖喾 喽呧栋喾‍喽亨逗喽编逗喽 喽洁稓喾 喾喾栢逗喾 喽⑧督 喾喾掄动喾斷督喾 喾喾掄动喾‍喽亨窂喾喾 喽窂喽 喾勦窂 喾冟穵喽氞侗喾娻栋 喾勦窋喾喽膏窂喽秽窋 喽氞穵‍喽秽窉喽亨窂喾喽洁窉喽亨逗喾.

喽脆穪喾娻稜喾忇动喾 喽嬥洞喾忇栋喾 喽呧栋喾‍喽亨逗喽 喽氞锭喽亨窋喽窋喾喽洁窉喽编穵 喽脆穬喾斷穩 喽脆窓喽秽穮喾 喽脆窅喽膏窉喽窉 喽嗋稜喾忇痘喾娻逗 喽⑧逗喽窉喽洁稓 喽洁秱喽氞窂 喾喾掄穪喾娻穩喾喾掄动喾‍喽亨窂喽洁逗喾 喽夃秱喽⑧窉喽编窔喽秽窋 喽脆窊喽ㄠ逗喾 喽嗋稜喾忇痘喾娻逗 喽膏东喾娻订喽洁逗喾 喾冟窔喾喽亨窓喾勦窉 喽编窉喽秽董 喾喾栢逗喾氞逗. 喽嗋稜喾忇痘喾娻逗 喽洁稓喾娻穫喾娻陡喽编穵 喽⑧逗喽窉喽洁稓喽 喾喾掄穪喾娻穩喾喾掄动喾‍喽亨窂喽洁逗喾撪逗 喽嗋稜喾忇痘喾娻逗喾喽秽逗喽氞窋 喾喾冟逗喾權侗喾 喽窉喾喽亨窉喽编窔 喾冟陡喾忇盯 喽窔喾佮洞喾忇督喽 喾喾‍喽亨窂喽氞窋喽洁董喾 喾冟穭喾掄董 喽呧穩喽窉 喽氞窉喾勦窉喽脆逗喽 喽呧董喾娻动喾愢稓喾撪陡喾 喽洁动 喾勦窅喽氞窉 喾喾撪陡 喾勦窋喽窋 喽夃秱喽⑧窉喽编窔喽秽窋 喾喾掄动喾‍喽亨窂喾 喾冟陡喾娻抖喽编穵喽 喾喾掄动喾娻穩喽稓喾斷稖喾 喽董喾娻董喾娻穩喽亨窓喽编穵 喽多窅喾勦窅喽 喾喾權陡喾掄侗喾 喾冟陡喾忇盯-喽窔喾佮洞喾忇督喽 喽脆穵‍喽秽穩喽董喾 喾勦窂 喽呧栋喾‍喽亨窂喽脆侗 喽氞穵‍喽秽陡喽 喾冟陡喾娻抖喽编穵喽 喽编穩 喽犩窉喽编穵喽侗喽亨稓喾 喽氞痘喾 喽亨窚喽膏窋 喾喾撪陡喽 喽膏稛 喽脆窇喽窎 喽多穩 喽脆窓喽编窔. 1960 喽穪喽氞逗 喾喽 喾喾掄锭 喾喾掄穪喾娻穩喾喾掄动喾‍喽亨窂喽洁逗喾喽洁锭 喽膏穩喾 喽多穬喾掄侗喾 喽呧栋喾‍喽亨窂喽脆侗喽 喽洁动 喽溹陡喾娻抖喽 喽痘喾斷东 喽痘喾斷东喾掄逗喽编穵 喾喾掄穪喾娻穩喾喾掄动喾‍喽亨窂喽洁锭 喽脆窉喾喾掄穬喾撪陡 喽囙痘喽灌窊 喽窉喽多窉喽窉. 喽斷穩喾斷侗喾娻锭 喾喾掄动喾‍喽亨窂 喾喾掄穫喽亨逗喽编穵- 喾喾掄穪喾氞穫喽亨窓喽编穵 喽 喽夃秱喽⑧窉喽编窔喽秽窋 喾喾掄动喾‍喽亨窂喾- 喽夃稖喾權侗喾撪陡喽 喽夃秱喽溹窉喽秽窉喾冟窉喽亨锭 喽膏窂喽秽窋 喾喾撪陡 喽呧董喾‍喽亨穩喾佮穵‍喽 喾喾栢逗喾 喽. 喽脆穵‍喽秽陡喾忇东喾喽穵 喽夃秱喽溹窉喽秽窉喾冟窉 喽呧栋喾‍喽亨窂喽脆侗喽亨稓喾 喽秽穭喾掄董喾 喽溹陡喾娻抖喽 喽脆穵‍喽秽动喾氞穪喾喽洁窉喽编穵 喾喾掄穪喾娻穩喾喾掄动喾‍喽亨窂喽洁逗喽 喽脆穵‍喽秽穩喾氞穪 喾喽 喾佮窉喾傕穵‍喽亨逗喽编穵喽 喽戉逗 喽膏穭喽穵 喽窋喾傕穵喽氞痘喽窂喾喽氞穵 喾喾掄逗. 喽 喾勦窔喽窋喾喾權侗喾 喾喾掄动喾‍喽亨窂 喾喾掄穫喽亨逗喽编穵 喾冟冻喾勦窂 喽穵喾喾掄斗喾忇穫喽 喽呧栋喾‍喽亨窂喽脆侗喽亨稓喾 喽洁抖喾 喽窊喽膏锭 喾冟窅喽洁穬喾斷陡喾 喾冟稓喾冟穵 喽氞窓喽秽窓喽膏窉喽编穵 喽脆窅喾喽窉喽窉. 1966 喽呧秱喽 20 喽痘喽 喽嬥穬喾冟穵 喽呧栋喾‍喽亨窂喽脆侗 喽脆侗喽 喽膏稛喾掄侗喾 喽戉董喾權稓喾 喾喾掄穪喾娻穩喾喾掄动喾‍喽亨窂喽洁逗喾喽洁锭 喾勦窉喽膏窉喾 喽窉喽多窎 喾冟穵喾喾忇栋喾撪侗喽窂喾 喽亨陡喾 喽脆陡喽稓喾掄侗喾 喽呧穭喾澿穬喾 喾喾掄逗. 喾冟窉喽亨督喾斷陡 喾喾掄穪喾娻穩喾喾掄动喾‍喽亨窂喽洁逗 喽呧督喾斷董喾掄侗喾 喽脆窉喾勦窉喽о窋喾喽 喽洁动 喽⑧窂喽窉喽 喽嬥穬喾冟穵 喽呧栋喾‍喽亨窂喽脆侗 喾冟斗喾忇穩 喽亨锭喽锭 喽溹窅喽编窉喽窉. 1971喽窊 喽夃秱喽⑧窉喽编窔喽秽窋 喽脆窊喽ㄠ逗喽 喽穩喽穵 喽呧栋喾‍喽亨逗喽编窂喽傕穪 喽窋喽编稓喾 喽戉稓喾 喽氞窓喽秽窓喽膏窉喽编穵 喽戉逗 喽脆窐喽窋喽洁董喾娻穩喽亨锭 喽脆董喾 喾喾掄逗. 喽 喾冟陡喽熰陡 71 喽痘喾斷东 喽编窅喽熰窉喽о窊喽膏穵 喽脆窅喽 喽编窅喽熰窉喽窉. 喽夃侗喾 喽呧侗喽窋喽秽窋喾 1972喽窊 喾冟窉喽亨督喾斷陡 喾喾掄穪喾娻穩喾喾掄动喾‍喽亨窂喽 喽侗喾 喾喾掄穪喾娻穩喾喾掄动喾‍喽亨窂喽洁逗喽 喽膏东喾娻订喽 喽多穩喽 喽脆董喾 喽氞窓喽秽窉喽窉. 喽呧栋喾‍喽亨窂喽脆侗喽 喽亨侗喾 喾佮窉喾傕穵‍喽亨逗喽编穵 喾勦窋喽窋 喾喾掄穫喽亨顶喾忇侗喽亨窓喽编穵 喽脆窛喾傕东喽 喽氞窉喽秽窊喽 喽脆陡喽稓喾 喽编窚喾喽 喽多穩喽穵 喽戉逗 喾冟陡喾忇盯喾忇痘喾娻懂喾掄稓 喾勦窂 喽窔喾佮洞喾忇督喽 喽多督喾喾氞稖 喾勦窂 喽脆穵‍喽秽穩喽董喾 喽呧侗喾斷穩 喽脆穵‍喽秽董喾掄洞喽穵喽窉 喽窊喽秽东 喽溹侗喾掄陡喾掄侗喾 喽亨窂 喽亨窋喽窋 喽溹陡喽编稓喾 喽多穩喽穵 喽嗋稜喾忇痘喾娻逗 喽⑧逗喽窉喽洁稓 喾喽о穭喾 喽溹侗喾斷逗喾 喽膏窔 喾勦窅喽洁穭喾愢洞喾娻洞喾撪陡喾娻穩喽洁锭 喾喾掄穩喾掄栋喾忇稓喾忇痘喽亨窓喽编穵 喽膏窋喾勦窋喽 喽窊喽膏窓喽编窉.

喽嗋稜喾忇痘喾娻逗喾喽秽逗喽氞窋 喾喾冟逗喾權侗喾 喽夃稖喾愢侗喾娻穩喾撪陡喾 喽氞窂喽秽穵喽亨逗喽 喽呧陡喽痘喾 喽呧穩喾佮穵‍喽 喽脆痘喾娻逗喾氞穫喽 喾勦窂 喽脆穵‍喽秽稓喾忇穪喽 喽呧穩喾佮穵‍喽亨董喾 喾冟洞喾斷痘喾 喽溹侗喾掄陡喾掄侗喾 喽嗋稜喾忇痘喾娻逗 喽⑧逗喽窉喽洁稓 喽氞穵‍喽秽陡喽亨窓喽编穵 喽夃秱喽⑧窉喽编窔喽秽窋 喾喾掄动喾‍喽亨窂喾 喽脆窉喾呧窉喽多冻 喽膏穭喾忇稜喾忇痘喾娻逗 喽班窋喽秽逗 喽窓喽氞穵 喽嬥穬喾冟穵 喾喾撪陡喾 喽洁抖喽编窋喽亨窔 喽氞窋喾冟督喽窂 喽脆动喽编陡喾掄侗喾. 喽膏穭喾忇稜喾忇痘喾娻逗 喽⑧逗喽窉喽洁稓 1985 喾冟窉喽 1989 喽窓喽氞穵 (1987 喾勦窅喽) 喽夃秱喽⑧窉喽编窔喽秽窋 喽脆窊喽ㄠ逗喾 喽脆窊喽ㄠ窂喽班窉喽脆董喾 喽班窋喽秽逗喽 1989-91 喾喽氞穩喽编窋喾喾權穭喾 喽脆窔喽秽窂喽窓喽窉喽 喾喾掄穪喾娻穩喾喾掄动喾‍喽亨窂喽洁逗喾 喽嬥洞喽氞窋喽洁洞喽窉 喽班窋喽秽逗喽 喾勦窓喽多穩喾撪逗. 喽斷穭喾 喽膏窔 喽侗喽窋喽秽窋 喽痘喽编窋喽亨窔 喽掄穩喾忇逗喾掄侗喾 喽洁窅喽多窓喽 喾喽秽洞喾‍喽秽穬喾忇动 喽编窉喾冟窂 喾勦窛 喽戉陡喽熰窉喽编穵 喽秽窅喾冟穵 喾喾呧督喾娻督喽氞穵 喽溹窚喽┼侗喽熰窂 喽溹窅喽编窊喽膏窔 喽呧痘喽膏窋喽窓喽编穵 喾勦窛 喽编窚喾喾. 喾喾掄穪喾娻穩喾喾掄动喾‍喽亨窂喽洁逗 喽脆痘喾掄洞喾忇督喽编逗喾權穭喾 喽编窉喽秽董 喾喾撪陡喾權侗喾 喽洁董喾 喽呧董喾娻动喾愢稓喾撪陡喾 喾冟陡喾娻斗喾忇痘喽 喾勦窂 喽戉逗喾掄侗喾 喽呧董喾娻洞喽穵 喽氞窚喽 喽溹窅喽编窋喽窋 喽⑧窊喾喾掄董喽脆痘喾掄顶喾忇侗喽 喽脆窓喽秽穮喾 喽窉喾喽亨窉喽编窔 喽痘喾斷东 喽脆穵‍喽秽穪喾娻侗 喾喾掄穬喽赤窊喽膏窔 喽膏秱 喾冟窓喾喾撪陡喾權穭喾 喾勦窂 喽呧栋喾‍喽亨窂喽脆侗 喽脆穵‍喽秽董喾掄穬喽傕穬喾娻稓喽秽东 喾冟陡喾娻抖喽编穵喽班逗喾權侗喾 喽嬥洞喽亨窛喽溹窉 喽氞窚喽 喽溹董 喾勦窅喽氞窉 喾喾撪陡 喽膏穭喾忇稜喾忇痘喾娻逗 喽⑧逗喽窉喽洁稓 喽膏窔 喽侗喽窋喽秽窋喾喽洁窉喽编穵 喽嬥洞喽亨窂 喽溹董喾 喾冟窂喽秽窂喽秽穵喽逗 喽多穩 喽编窉喾冟窅喽氞逗. 1999 喽窊 喽秽窋喾勦窋喽 喾喾掄穪喾娻穩喾喾掄动喾‍喽亨窂喽洁逗喾 喽夃秱喽⑧窉喽编窔喽秽窋 喽脆窊喽ㄠ逗 喾冟穵喽窂喽脆侗喽 喽氞窉喽秽窊喽膏窔喽窊 喽戉穭喾 喽脆穮喽膏窋 喽脆窊喽ㄠ窂喽班窉喽脆董喾 喽班窋喽秽逗喽о动 喽膏穭喾忇稜喾忇痘喾娻逗 喽⑧逗喽窉喽洁稓 喽脆董喾 喽氞窓喽秽窉喽窉. 喾喾掄穪喾娻穩喾喾掄动喾‍喽亨窂喽洁逗 喾冟窔喾喾忇穩喾權侗喾 喾喾掄穪喾‍喽秽窂喽 喽洁窅喽多窊喽膏窓喽编穵 喽脆穬喾 喾 喽膏穭喾忇稜喾忇痘喾娻逗 喽⑧逗喽窉喽洁稓 喾喾權董 喾冟陡喾娻陡喾忇侗喾掄董 喽膏穭喾忇稜喾忇痘喾娻逗 喽班窋喽秽逗 喽脆窉喽秽窉喽编窅喽膏窋喽窋 喽呧董喽 喾喽亨豆 喾喾掄穪喾娻穩喾喾掄动喾‍喽亨窂喽洁逗喾 喽氞窋喽洁洞喽窉 喽班窋喽秽逗喽о动 喽脆董喾 喽氞窓喽秽窉喽窉.

喾喾掄穪喾娻穩喾喾掄动喾‍喽亨窂喽 喽嗋稜喾忇痘喾娻逗喾喽秽逗喽氞窋喽 喾勦窋喽窓喽氞穵 喽陡喽编穵喽溹窔 喾喾掄穫喽 喽氞穵喾傕窔喽穵‍喽秽逗喾 喾冟窊喽膏窂喾喽编穵喾勦窉 喽脆陡喽稓喾 喽编窚喽秽窅喽赤窊 喽脆窋喾呧窋喽洁穵 喽⑧窂喽窉喽 喾冟秱喾喽秽穵喽班侗喽 喾勦窂 喽脆穵‍喽秽董喾掄洞喽穵喽窉 喾冟陡喾娻洞喾忇动喽编逗喽 喽⑧窂喽窉喽 喽脆穵‍喽秽穪喾娻侗 喽编窉喽秽窂喽氞痘喽逗喽 喾冟冻喾勦窂 喽窅喽氞穵喾喾掄逗 喾勦窅喽氞窉 喽夃穭喾呧陡 喽窂喽亨稓喽穵喾喽 喽洁抖喾 喽窉喽 喾勦窅喽氞窉 喽多穩喽 喽窅喽氞穵喾喾掄逗 喾勦窅喽氞窉 喽亨窛喽溹穵‍喽亨董喽 喽编窉喽痘喾娻穪喽编逗 喽膏穭喾忇稜喾忇痘喾娻逗 喽洁稓喾娻穫喾娻陡喽编穵 喽⑧逗喽窉喽洁稓 喽犩痘喾掄董喽 喽多穩 喽呧穩喾掄穩喾忇动喾忇董喾娻陡喽氞逗.

1988-89 喾冟陡喽亨窔 喽窉喾喽亨窉喽编窔 喽嬥动喾娻稖喽 喾喾 喽痘喾斷东 喽编窅喽熰窉喽о窊喽膏穵 喽膏窂喽洁窂喾 喾勦窋喽窓喽氞穵 喽 喾冟陡喾忇穬喽编穵喽编逗喾權穭喾 喾冟窉喽窋 喾喾 喽窔喾佮洞喾忇督喽 喾勦窂 喽嗋痘喾娻懂喾掄稓 喾喾權侗喾冟穵喾喾撪陡喾娻穩喽洁锭 喽痘喾斷东喽亨侗喾 喾喾掄穬喾掄侗喾 喽稓喾娻穩喽 喽洁动 喽氞穵喾傕东喾掄稓 喽脆穵‍喽秽董喾掄稜喾忇痘喽亨稓喾 喾勦窛 喽斷穩喾斷侗喾娻锭 喽窔喾佮洞喾忇督喽 喽脆窓喽洁豆喾喾撪陡喾 喽洁抖喾 喽窋喽编穵 喽多督喾喾氞稖喾喽 喽呧洞喾氞稓喾娻穫喾 喽夃锭喾 喽氞窉喽秽窊喽膏稓喾 喾勦窛 喽编窚喾 喽亨锭喽穵喾喾掄盯喾掄董 喾喾忇动喽亨窓喽编穵 喽膏窉喽窊 喽溹董 喾喾斷东喾 喽穪喽 喽氞窉喾勦窉喽脆逗喾權穭喾 喽呧侗喾斷稖喽膏侗喽 喽氞窓喽秽窋喽窋 喾冟陡喾忇盯喾忇痘喾娻懂喾掄稓 喾勦窂 喽呧栋喾‍喽亨窂喽脆侗 喽氞穵‍喽秽窉喽亨窂喾喽洁窉喽亨窓喾勦窉 喾喾掄洞喾忇稓 喽多穩 喽脆窅喾勦窅喽窉喽洁窉喾 喾勦窂 喽编窉喽秽穩喾斷督喾娻穩 喽脆窓喽编穵喾喾 喽窓喽膏窉喽编穵 喽呧侗喾忇稖喽逗喾權穭喾 喽戉抖喽赤窋 喽董喾娻董喾娻穩 喽嬥动喾娻稖喽 喽编窓喾忇穩喾撪陡 喾冟冻喾勦窂 喾冟穵喽窂喾喽 喾冟陡喾忇盯喾忇痘喾娻懂喾掄稓 喽氞穵‍喽秽窉喽亨窂喽膏窂喽秽穵喽 喽呧侗喾斷稖喽膏侗喽 喽氞窉喽秽窊喽膏锭喽穵 喽呧栋喾‍喽亨窂喽脆侗喽亨窓喾勦窉 喽窉喾佮窂喽编董喾掄逗 喾冟窋喽粪穩喾忇动喾 喽呧侗喾娻董喽亨稓喾 喽氞痘喾 喽亨窚喽膏窋 喽氞窉喽秽窊喽膏锭喽穵 喽呧穩喾佮穵‍喽 喽膏窂喽秽穵喽溹窛喽脆动喾氞穪 喽脆窓喽编穵喾喾 喽窓喽膏窉喽编穵 1990 喽膏窂喽秽穵喽窋 喽膏窂喾冟逗喾權穭喾 喽编窉喽氞窋喽穵 喽氞窓喽秽窋喽窋 喽痘喾斷东喽亨侗喾 喽脆窉喾呧窉喽多冻 喽氞窚喽膏窉喾傕侗喾 喾冟斗喾忇穩喾 喾喾忇痘喾娻董喾忇穩 喾冟陡喾娻洞喾忇动喽编逗 喽氞窓喽秽窋喽窔 喽膏穭喾忇稜喾忇痘喾娻逗 喽洁稓喾娻穫喾娻陡喽编穵 喽⑧逗喽窉喽洁稓喽溹窔 喽脆穵‍喽秽栋喾忇侗喽穵喾喽亨窓喽编窉. 喽脆穩喽穵喽编窂 喽嗋逗喽侗 喾勦窂 喽氞穵‍喽秽陡 喽脆动喾娻栋喽窉 喽氞窓喽秽窓喽编穵 喽痘喾斷东喽亨侗喾 喽窎喽秽穬喾娻懂 喾喾 喽囙董喾 喽多穩喽穵 喽氞穵‍喽秽窉喽亨窂喽穵喽膏稓 喽膏窅喽窉喾喽秽东 喽氞穵‍喽秽陡喽 喽氞窓喽秽窓喾勦窉 喽痘喾斷东喽亨侗喾娻稖喾 喾喾掄穪喾娻穩喾忇穬喽 喽多窉喽赤窊 喽囙董喾 喽多穩喽穵 喽脆窓喽编穵喾喾 喽窋喽编穵 喽 喽氞窚喽膏窉喾傕侗喾 喾喾忇痘喾娻董喾忇穩 喽窔喾佮洞喾忇督喽 喽多督喽 喽呧逗喾斷董喾 喽洁窓喾 喽粪窂喾喾掄董 喽氞痘喽 喽脆穵‍喽秽栋喾忇侗 喽呧秱喾 喾勦董喽秽稓喾 喽戉动喾, 喽膏窉喽编穵 喽穪喽 喽窋喽编稓喽 喽斷抖喾娻抖喾權穭喾 喽脆窓喽编穵喾喾 喽窊 喽窉喽多窉喽窉.

喽秽窂喽⑧穵‍喽 喾冟窔喾喽 喾冟冻喾勦窂 喽多冻喾喾 喽溹窅喽编窊喽膏窔喽窊喽穵 喽秽盯喽亨窔 喽夃动喾掄稓喾掄痘喾撪陡喾 喾勦窂 喽氞窚喽编穵喽穵‍喽秽窂喽穵 喽氞锭喽亨窋喽窋喾喽洁动喾撪董喾 喽多督喽亨窓喾勦窉 喾冟窉喽о窉喽 喽窔喾佮洞喾忇督喽 喽脆稓喾娻穫喾喽 喾勦窉喽穩喽窋喽编穵喽 喾勦窂 喽嗋栋喾忇痘喽氞痘喾斷穩喽编穵喽 喾喽秽动喾忇侗 喽洁抖喾 喽窊喽膏窓喽编穵 喽脆穵‍喽秽盯喾忇董喽编穵喽穵‍喽秽穩喾忇动喾 喽嗋逗喽侗 喾喾‍喽亨窎喾勦逗 喽多窉喽 喾喾愢锭喾 喽囙董喾 喽嗋稓喾忇痘喽 喽戉逗喾掄侗喾 喽膏窚喽编穩喽 喽犩窉喽穵‍喽秽东喽 喽氞痘 喽窅喽氞穵喾喾掄东喾. 喽夃动喾掄痘喾掄逗喾氞动喾 喽痘喾斷东喽亨侗喾娻稖喾 喽呧穬喾勦侗喽氞窂喽秽窉喽穵喾喽亨锭 喾勦窔喽窋 喾喽 喽多督喾喾氞稖 喽氞穵‍喽秽窉喽亨窂喽穵喽膏稓 喾喾斷穩 喾勦窚喽穵 喽掄穩喾忇锭 喽戉痘喾權穭喾 喾 喽痘喾斷东喽亨侗喾 喽脆穵‍喽秽稜喽穵喽 喽膏窂喽秽穵喽溹穩喽洁锭 喽戉穮喽灌窊喽 喾喾呧稓喾娻穩喾忇督喾撪陡 喾冟冻喾勦窂 喽脆窂喽秽穵喽洁窉喽膏窔喽编穵喽窋喾喽 喽脆陡喽稓喾 喾喽 喽氞窉喽亨侗 喽痘喾斷东 喽氞锭喽亨窋喽窋 喽脆窉喾呧窉喽多冻 喽斷陡喾娻抖喾斷订喾娻穬喾娻陡喽编穵喾喽秽逗喽氞窋 喽脆董喾 喽氞窉喽秽窊喽膏锭喽 喽呧栋喾‍喽亨窂喽脆侗喽亨窔 喽窉喾佮窂喽编董喾掄逗 喽呧侗喾忇稖喽 喽痘喾斷东 喽⑧窊喾喾掄董喾喽 喽呧斗喾掄穩喾樴动喾娻栋喾掄逗 喽嬥动喾權穬喾 喽编穩喾撪稓喽秽东喽 喽氞窉喽秽窊喽膏锭喽 喽戉穭喾 喽洁窂 喽编窉喽秽穵喽窔喾 喽氞窓喽秽窉喽窉. 喽脆窂喾冟督 喽窔喾佮洞喾忇督喽 喽呧栋喾掄稓喾忇痘喾掄逗喾權侗喾 喾勦窂 喽编窉喽洁栋喾忇痘喾 喽多督喽亨窓喽编穵 喽膏窋喽穩喾 喽溹侗喾掄陡喾掄侗喾 喽脆穵‍喽秽盯喾 喽脆窂喾冟督喾 喾冟秱喽氞督喾娻洞喽 喾勦冻喾斷侗喾娻穩喾 喽窊喽膏窔 喾喾愢动喽溹董喾娻稓喽 喽呧穩喽班窂喽秽东喽 喽氞穮 喽氞陡喾掄锭喾 喾喾忇痘喾娻董喾忇穩 喽呧栋喾‍喽亨窂喽脆侗喽 喾冟冻喾勦窂 喽⑧窂喽窉喽 喽脆穵‍喽秽董喾掄洞喽穵喽窉 喾冟陡喾娻洞喾忇动喽 喽氞窂喽秽穵喽亨逗 喽嬥动喾權穬喾 喾冟穵喾喾忇栋喾撪侗 喽呧栋喾‍喽亨窂喽脆侗 喽氞窚喽膏窉喾傕侗喾 喾冟斗喾忇穩喽氞穵 喾冟穵喽窂喽脆侗喽亨窓喾勦窉 喾喾愢动喽溹董喾娻稓喽 喽呧穩喽班窂喽秽东喽 喽氞窚喽 喽窉喽多窉喽窉.

喾喾忇痘喾娻董喾忇穩喾權穭喾 喽呧侗喾掄稓喾斷董喾 喽编窉喽秽穵喽窔喾 喾冟陡喾娻抖喽编穵喽班逗喾權侗喾 喽氞窓喾冟窔 喾喾權董喽穵 喽呧栋喾‍喽亨窂喽脆侗 喽氞窚喽膏窉喾傕侗喾 喾冟斗喾忇穩喽氞穵 喽脆窉喾勦窉喽о窋喾喾撪陡 喾冟陡喾娻抖喽编穵喽班逗喾權侗喾 喽戉动喾 喽窔喾佮洞喾忇督喽 喽呧栋喾掄稓喾忇痘喾掄逗喾權穭喾 喽呧穩喽班窂喽编逗 喽亨窚喽膏窋 喾喾撪陡喾 喽脆穵‍喽秽董喾掄兜喽洁逗 喾喾栢逗喾 喽⑧窂喽窉喽 喽呧栋喾‍喽亨窂喽脆侗 喽氞窚喽膏窉喾傕侗喾 喾冟斗喾忇穩 喾冟穵喽窂喽脆侗喽亨逗喾. 喽戉穭喾 喾冟陡喾忇痘喽膏穵喽粪稓 喾冟斗喾忇洞喽窉 喽班窋喽秽逗 喽脆窉喽秽窉喽编窅喽膏窋喽窔喽 喽膏穭喾忇稜喾忇痘喾娻逗 喽洁稓喾娻穫喾娻陡喽编穵 喽⑧逗喽窉喽洁稓喽о逗. 1991 喾冟窉喽 2001 喽窓喽氞穵 喾勦窂 喽编窅喾喽 2012 喾冟窉喽 2016 喽窓喽氞穵 喽斷穭喾 喽⑧窂喽窉喽 喽呧栋喾‍喽亨窂喽脆侗 喽氞窚喽膏窉喾傕侗喾 喾冟斗喾忇穩喾權穭喾 喾冟斗喾忇洞喽窉 喽班窋喽秽逗 喾勦窚喽多穩喽膏窉喽编穵 喽窉喾喽亨窉喽编窔 喽呧栋喾‍喽亨窂喽脆侗 喽脆穵‍喽秽董喾掄洞喽穵喽窉, 喾冟窅喽洁穬喾斷陡喾娻稓喽秽东喽 喾勦窂 喽脆穵‍喽秽董喾掄穩喾‍喽亨窎喾勦稖喽 喽氞窉喽秽窊喽膏穵 喾冟陡喾娻抖喽编穵喽 喾喾忇痘喾娻董喾 喽氞窉喾勦窉喽脆逗喽氞穵 喽多督喽班窂喽秽窊喽编穵 喾喾權董 喽夃动喾掄痘喾掄洞喽穵 喽氞窚喽 喽窉喽多窉喽窉.

喽脆窂喾冟督喽 喽囙董喾斷穮喽穵 喾喽 喾佮窉喾傕穵‍喽亨逗喾 喽编窉喽亨陡喾掄董 喽呧栋喾‍喽亨逗喽 喽脆锭喾掄洞喾忇锭喾掄逗 喾冟陡喾娻洞喾栢痘喾娻东 喽编窚喽氞窚喽 喽脆窂喾冟督喾 喾勦窅喽 喽亨窂喽膏窔 喾冟陡喾忇盯 喽呧痘喾娻抖喾斷动喽, 喽⑧侗喽脆穵‍喽秽窉喽 喽脆窂喾冟督喾 喾喾‍喽亨窂喽班窉喽, 喽脆穭喾 喾佮窉喾傕穵‍喽亨董喾娻穩 喽秽窛喽溹逗 喽嗋动喾掄逗 喾冟冻喾勦窂 喽脆穵‍喽秽董喾撪稓喾忇痘喽 喽脆窂喾冟督喾 喽呧栋喾‍喽亨窂喽脆侗喽亨窓喾勦窉 喽溹窋喽窂喽穵喽膏稓喽粪窂喾喽 喾喽秽穵喽班侗喽 喾冟冻喾勦窂 喽呧侗喾娻董喽秽穵喽⑧窂喽窉喽 喽呧董喾娻动喾愢稓喾撪陡喾 喽脆动喽编陡喾 喽氞窚喽 喽溹侗喾掄陡喾掄侗喾 喽窔喾佮窊喽 喽脆穬喾斷抖喾掄陡喽 喽呧侗喾斷稓喾栢督 喽脆穵‍喽秽董喾掄穬喽傕穬喾娻稓喽秽东 喾冟陡喾娻抖喽编穵喽 喽亨窛喽⑧侗喾忇动 喽脆窞喽穵喽溹督喾掄稓 喽嬥洞喽氞窂喽秽稓 喽脆侗喾娻董喾 喾喾冟秱喽溹董喽亨锭 喽脆窉喾呧窉喽亨陡喾 喽亨窓喽窉喽 喽亨窋喽窋 喽嗋稓喾忇痘喽 喽膏窓喽编穵喽 喽脆穵‍喽秽穪喾娻侗 喾喾掄穬喽赤窊喽 喾冟冻喾勦窂 喽戉稓喾 喽秽窅喽亨窉喽编穵 喽夃动喾掄痘喾掄洞喽穵 喽氞窓喽秽窓喽 喾喾掄动喾氞穪 喽粪窂喾傕窂 喽夃稖喾愢侗喾娻穩喾撪陡 喾勦窂 喽窂喽氞穵喾傕东喾掄稓 喾喾掄穫喽亨逗喽编穵 喽多动喾 喽溹窅喽编窊喽 喽嗋动喾 喽脆穵‍喽秽穪喾娻侗 喽膏穭喾忇稜喾忇痘喾娻逗 喽⑧逗喽窉喽洁稓 喽膏窓喽编穵喽 喽斷穭喾斷锭 喽脆穬喾斷穩 喽脆董喾 喾喾 喾冟斗喾忇洞喽窉喾喽秽窋喽编穵 喾喾掄穬喾掄侗喾娻动 喽呧穩喽班窂喽秽东喽 喽氞窚喽 喽窉喽多窋喽窋 喽编陡喾斷动喾 喽多督喽班窂喽秽窊喽编穵喽溹窔 喽呧穩喽班窂喽编逗 喽 喽亨窛喽⑧侗喾 喾喾權董 喽亨窚喽膏窋 喾喾 喽多穩喽氞穵 喽窅喽 喽溹董 喽编窚喾勦窅喽氞窉 喾喾掄逗. 喽呧栋喾‍喽亨窂喽脆侗 喽脆穵‍喽秽董喾掄洞喽穵喽窉 喾冟陡喾娻抖喽编穵喽班逗喾權侗喾 喽⑧侗喾忇栋喾掄洞喽窉喾喽秽逗喾忇锭 喽嬥洞喽窓喾冟穵 喽窉喽 喽亨窋喽窋 喽膏穭喾忇侗喾斷斗喾忇穩 喾冟陡喾娻洞喽编穵喽 喽嗋逗喽侗喽亨稓喾 喾喽 喽呧栋喾‍喽亨窂喽脆侗 喽氞窚喽膏窉喾傕侗喾 喾冟斗喾忇穩 喽呧动 喽编窂喽 喽脆窋喾喽秽窋喾喽氞穵 喽脆陡喽稓喾 喾勦窉喽膏窉 喽氞窂喽秽穵喽亨窂喽洁逗喽氞穵 喽多穩喽 喽脆董喾 喽氞窚喽 喽窉喽多窔.

喽夃秱喽⑧窉喽编窔喽秽窋喾喾掄动喾‍喽亨窂喾 喽脆窉喾呧窉喽多冻 喾喾掄穪喾氞穫喽ム逗喽氞窋 喾喾斷穩喽 喽膏穭喾忇稜喾忇痘喾娻逗 喽⑧逗喽窉喽洁稓 喽膏窂喽编穩 喾佮窂喾冟穵喽穵‍喽 喾勦窂 喾冟陡喾忇盯喾撪逗 喾喾掄动喾‍喽亨窂 喾喾掄穫喽 喾冟陡喾娻抖喽编穵喽班逗喾權侗喾娻动 喽脆穵‍喽秽陡喾忇东喾喽穵 喽呧穩喽多窛喽班逗喽氞穵 喽膏窓喽编穵喽 喾喾掄穪喾忇督 喽嬥侗喽编穵喽窋喾喽氞穵 喽囙董喾 喾喾掄动喾娻穩喽窓喽氞穵 喾喾掄逗. 喽痘喾斷东 喽氞窚喽膏窉喾傕侗喾 喾冟斗喾 喾喾忇痘喾娻董喾忇穩喾權穭喾 喽膏窓喽编穵喽 喽呧栋喾‍喽亨窂喽脆侗 喽氞窚喽膏窉喾傕侗喾 喾冟斗喾忇穩 喽膏稛喾掄侗喾 喽夃动喾掄痘喾掄洞喽穵 喽氞穮 喾喾忇痘喾娻董喾忇穩喽编穵喾勦窉喽 喽斷穭喾 喽粪窂喾傕窂 喽脆穵‍喽秽董喾掄洞喽穵喽窉喽 喾勦窂 喽呧栋喾‍喽亨窂喽脆侗 喽膏窂喽班穵‍喽亨逗 喾冟陡喾娻抖喽编穵喽班逗喾權侗喾 喽脆穵‍喽秽陡喾忇东喾喽穵 喾勦窂 喽窊喽氞穵喾傕东 喽呧穩喽班窂喽编逗喽氞穵 喽亨窚喽膏窋 喽氞窚喽 喽窉喽多窉喽窉. 喽呧栋喾‍喽亨窂喽脆侗 喽膏窂喽班穵‍喽亨逗 喾喾冟逗喾權侗喾 喾冟窉喽傕穭喽 喾勦窂 喽窓喽膏穮 喽粪窂喾傕窂 喽脆穵‍喽秽陡喾掄董喽氞痘喽逗 喾冟冻喾勦窂 喽膏穭喾忇稜喾忇痘喾娻逗 喽⑧逗喽窉喽洁稓喽溹窔 喽膏稛 喽脆窓喽编穵喾喾撪陡喾權侗喾 喽脆董喾 喽氞穮 喽氞陡喾掄锭喾斷穩喾 喾喾忇痘喾娻董喾忇穩 喽嗋逗喽侗喽 喽氞窔喽窇喽秽窉 喾喾 喽亨窂喽膏董喾 喾冟陡喽 喾喾愢穮喽洁窊 喽溹窚喾冟穵 喽窉喽多窔. 喽 喽氞陡喾掄锭喾斷穩 喾冟陡喾娻抖喽编穵喽班逗喾權侗喾 喽膏穭喾忇稜喾忇痘喾娻逗 喽⑧逗喽窉喽洁稓喽溹窔 喾喾掄穪喾氞穫 喽嬥侗喽编穵喽窋喾喽氞穵 喾喾掄逗. 喽膏穭喾忇稜喾忇痘喾娻逗 喾喾掄陡喽洁穵 喽⑧窊. 喽多督喽溹督喾娻督喾 喾勦窂 喽膏穭喾忇稜喾忇痘喾娻逗 喽⑧窔. 喽多窊. 喽窉喾冟窂喽编窂喽亨稓 喽窓喽脆穮喽溹窔 喽脆穵‍喽秽栋喾忇侗喽穵喾喽亨窓喽编穵 喽 喽氞陡喾掄锭喾斷穩 喽秽窅喾冟穵 喾喽 喽多窚喾勦窛 喽呧穩喾冟穵喽窂喾喽编穵喾勦窉 喽膏穭喾忇稜喾忇痘喾娻逗 喽⑧逗喽窉喽洁稓喽 喽娻锭 喾冟穭喽粪窂喽溹窉 喾喾權陡喾掄侗喾 喽粪窂喾傕窂喾 喾冟陡喾娻抖喽编穵喽 喾喾掄穩喾掄栋 喽膏董喾喾忇动 喾勦窂 喽呧动喾勦穬喾 喽夃动喾掄痘喾掄洞喽穵 喽氞痘喽膏窉喽编穵 喾勦窋喽窋 喽粪窂喾傕窂喽ム逗喽编穵喽溹窔 喾冟窊喽膏窂喾喾權侗喾 喽斷抖喾娻抖喾權穭喾 喽脆穩喽穵喽编窂 喽溹窅喽о督喾 喽秽窅喾冟稓喾 喽脆窓喽编穵喾喾 喽窋喽编穵 喽嗋稓喾忇痘喽 喽膏稖喾 喽膏董喽氞逗喾權穭喾 喽秽窅喽赤窊 喽脆穩喽窊.

喽洁窛喽 喾冟穵喾喽粪窂喾喽 喾冟侗喾忇懂 喽氞痘喽膏窉喽编穵 喽膏穭喾忇稜喾忇痘喾娻逗 喽⑧逗喽窉喽洁稓 喽呧洞喾權侗喾 喾冟陡喾 喽溹侗喾娻侗喾 喾冟窅喽多窇 喾喾掄逗喽窋喽编穵喽溹窔 喽氞窂喽秽穵喽亨斗喾忇痘喽 喾勦窂 喽呧穩喽傕稓 喽窂喽亨稓喽穵喾喽 喽呧董喾‍喽亨穩喾佮穵‍喽 喽亨窋喽溹逗喽氞逗. 喾冟窋喽多穩喾忇动喾 喽呧栋喾‍喽亨窂喽脆侗 喾冟秱喾冟穵喽氞窐喽窉喽亨稓喾 喽溹窚喽 喽编窅喽熰窊 喽呧洞喾 喽窔喾佮逗 喾冟陡喾樴动喾娻栋喾掄陡喽穵 喾喽 喽窉喽编稓 喽斷穭喾 喾喾權侗喾斷穩喾權侗喾 喽膏穭喾 喾冟穵喽膏窂喽秽稓喽亨稓喾 喽夃动喾 喾喽编窋 喽编窚喽呧侗喾斷陡喾忇侗喽.

 

喽⑧穵‍喽亨窔喾傕穵喽 喽膏穭喾忇稜喾忇痘喾娻逗 喽秽董喾娻侗喾冟窉喽秽窉 喽呧痘喽傕稖喽

The post 喾喾掄动喾娻穩颅喽穵喽粪窂颅喾喽亨窔 喾勦窂 喽编窉喽宦穩喽穵‍喽 喾冟陡喾忇盯 喽窐喾傕穵喽о窉喽亨窔 喾冟窋喾冟秱颅喽亨窛颅喽溹逗 喽膏穭喾徛稜喾忇痘喾娻逗 喽洁稓喾娻穫喾娻陡喽编穵 喽⑧逗颅喽窉颅喽洁稓 喾喾冟痘 83喽氞穵 喽嗋逗喾 喾喾呧冻喾 喽窉喾喾捖穬喾惵痘喾掄逗 喽编窉喽 喽氞痘喽亨窉 – 喽⑧穵‍喽亨窔喾傕穵喽 喽膏穭喾忇稜喾忇痘喾娻逗 喽秽董喾娻侗喾冟窉喽秽窉 喽呧痘喽傕稖喽 appeared first on USJ - 91传媒.

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